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AFC Uzbekistan Fund Gaining Momentum - October 2025 Update

AFC Uzbekistan Fund Gaining Momentum - October 2025 Update

 

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“Feel the fear and do it anyway.

– Susan Jeffers - American Psychologist and Author

 

 
 
 
 NAV1Performance3
 (USD)October
2025
Year to DateSince
Inception
AFC Asia Frontier Fund USD A2,219.41+0.8%+16.1%+121.9%

MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index2

 -1.1%+42.2%+12.3%
AFC Iraq Fund USD D2,299.43-0.7%+12.0%+129.9%
Rabee Securities US Dollar Equity Index +0.6%+5.9%+58.8%
AFC Uzbekistan Fund USD F1,391.43+5.6%+10.8%+39.1%

Tashkent Stock Exchange Index (in USD)

 +1.3%+16.1%-19.7%
AFC Vietnam Fund USD C3,634.90-2.0%+4.8%+263.5%
Ho Chi Minh City VN Index (in USD) -0.9%+25.4%+158.6%
 
 
  1. The NAV given is for the lead share series for the relevant master fund. Investors’ holdings may be in a different share class, series, or currency and have a different NAV. See the factsheets and your statement for full details.
  2. Between 31st May 2017 and 30th November 2021 the benchmark was adjusted to be 37% of the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index “MSCI Index” and 63% of the Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index in USD due to the removal of Pakistan from the MSCI Index during this period.
  3. NAV and performance figures are all net of fees.
 
 

 

 

It was a positive start to the final quarter of the year for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund and the AFC Uzbekistan Fund, with the AFC Uzbekistan Fund reporting a nice gain of +5.6%.

We expect our Asian frontier markets to continue their momentum into the year-end, and we discussed this in our regular quarterly webinar, which was held on 30th October 2025. As usual, the webinar was well attended by existing and prospective investors who posted great questions.

To learn more about the outlook for our AFC Funds and markets, you can watch the recording via our YouTube channel or view the presentation below.

 

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November 2025 Subscription Cut-Off Date

The next cut-off date for subscriptions for our funds will be 24th November 2025. If you would like to know more about the subscription process, please get in touch with us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Please find below the managers’ comments on each of our four funds for October 2025.

 
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Upcoming AFC Travel

Thomas Hugger, Ruchir Desai, and Peter de Vries are based in Hong Kong, while Andreas Vogelsanger is based in Bangkok, Vicente Nguyen in Ho Chi Minh City, Scott Osheroff in Tashkent, and Ahmed Tabaqchali in London and Iraq. If you have an interest in meeting with our team at their homeports or during their travels, please contact Peter de Vries at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

AFC Travel

Baghdad, Iraq 30th November - 7th December Ahmed Tabaqchali
Colombo, Sri Lanka 1st - 5th December Ruchir Desai
Amman, Jordan 

7th - 12th December

 Ahmed Tabaqchali
London, UK 13th - 27th December Ahmed Tabaqchali
Hong Kong 11th - 23rd January 2026 Andreas Vogelsanger
 
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AFC Uzbekistan Fund - Manager Comment

 

AFC Uzbekistan Fund Performance

 

The AFC Uzbekistan Fund Class F shares returned +5.6% in October 2025 with a NAV of USD 1,391.43, bringing the year-to-date return to +10.8% and the return since inception (29th March 2019) to +39.1%.

We may look back on October 2025 as the step-change we’ve been waiting for in Uzbekistan’s capital markets since the launch of the AFC Uzbekistan Fund. During the month, Franklin Templeton and the government of Uzbekistan held what we believe was the largest single attraction of private sector investor capital represented in one room in Uzbekistan’s history, all centered around the privatisation of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) via the capital markets. 

For years we have harped on the very simple thesis that for the capital markets to function properly, and for a re-rate in equities to occur, we need to see trust and animal spirits instilled among local and foreign investors. To do this, we need to see the “crown jewels” of Uzbekistan’s SOEs be privatised (ideally dual listed) at attractive prices where investors can make money as these companies increase operating efficiency, leading to profit growth. We expect increased investor participation to then lead to more demand for corporate bonds yielding >20% (as investors turn away from Uzbek som term deposits as interest rates fall) and thereafter to support private sector IPOs.
This appears to all finally be kicking into high gear, though we are focused on near-term catalysts rather than getting excited about the government’s broader privatisation program, as there is a near-term progression needed to ensure long-term momentum. Though we are arguably the most optimistic we’ve been since launching the AFC Uzbekistan Fund, the coming months’ catalysts will be critical to confirm our thesis.

UzNIF Capital Markets Conference

From 22nd to 24th October, Franklin Templeton (FT) and the government of Uzbekistan hosted, by our calculation, the largest single attraction of private sector capital to Uzbekistan in the country’s history, with over USD 1 trillion represented in the room for the planned IPO of the Uzbekistan National Investment Fund “UzNIF”. Buy-side institutions and hedge funds comprised the majority of the foreigners in attendance out of a conference of roughly 300 persons. There was a buzz in the air that we have not felt in previous conferences organised in Tashkent.

Ironically, Uzbekistan’s capital markets development has been held hostage by its rapid transformation across the economy, which has caused severe paralysis over the years. This explains why two prior privatisation programs fell into the ether after much excitement. This time however feels very different as the spotlight is squarely on FT’s management of UzNIF and its planned dual listing on the London and Tashkent Stock Exchanges in the first quarter of 2026.

UzNIF is a special purpose vehicle currently owned 100% by the government of Uzbekistan, where the government has vended in its shares in 18 SOEs: from the national airline, Uzbekistan Airways, to financial services companies, electricity generation companies, water distribution, etc. The IPO plan calls for 25% to 30% of UzNIF to be floated.

UzNIF is part of a broader privatisation program where the government plans to IPO Uzbekistan Airways, the national gold company, Navoiy, as well as the national uranium company, several banks, and other entities. The total is roughly 14 companies, and hopefully, following success from UzNIF, the others are teed up for IPO over the next several years.

Another False Start or is it "Real" this Time?

So, we’ve seen privatisation announcements in the past and, understanding how Uzbekistan functions, are looking at this privatisation drive in a much more pragmatic way. Rather than being ebullient about all the companies that are planned to be listed and taking the government at its word, we are asking ourselves what stepping stones are needed to achieve success?

We saw roughly 100 institutional investors in Tashkent last week who were excited by the country’s prospects and a liquid vehicle to get exposure, while simultaneously throwing rocks at the various portfolio companies, as they should.

Firstly, we need to see capital markets reform with new legislation passed. Long-time readers know we have talked about the capital markets legislation stuck in parliament since 2021. This legislation, for lack of a better term, has been voided and in recent months the government has been working with international banks, Franklin Templeton, the financial regulator and other parties to take the best pieces of that legacy legislation and draft it into a simple, umbrella legislation which is clear and concise, and where future bylaws can be added without having to be approved by parliament. This is a significant step and will include items like fungibility of shares between dual-listed companies, segregated accounts for brokerages, and taking the current “sandbox” legislation and making it standard legislation. The latter should see several new international custodians enter the market, and we are aware of several already applying for licenses.

So, what’s the timeline? We are told that this new capital markets legislation is planned to be included in the final session of parliament in December 2025, where this would be approved at the same time as the national budget for 2026. The legislation is ready, and we are told the budget is not, so for the time being, it appears to be an education process among members of parliament to ensure this legislation is passed and nothing of importance is stripped from it. Time will tell. We are also told that Franklin Templeton moving ahead with the IPO of UzNIF is conditional on this legislation being passed in time, but that’s merely them trying to sound tough in our opinion, for the IPO is likely to go ahead regardless. Nonetheless, this is the first and most important stepping stone in the process of broader privatisation. 

The next step will be the actual IPO of UzNIF on the London and Tashkent Stock Exchanges in the first quarter of 2026. The interest is most certainly there and it would not be a surprise to see it oversubscribed by 3-5 times (similar to the country’s Eurobonds) with the interest we saw in the room and the diversification asset managers are looking to get to the one of the fastest growing regions in the world (Uzbekistan’s 2025 GDP growth estimate is 6.6% by the Asian Development Bank).

UzNIF has a net asset value of USD ~2 bln at present, and if 30% was sold in an IPO, we are looking at USD 600 million, which arguably a single large fund could absorb. So, it’s very clear that investors will be cut back abroad, and if international custodians get their Uzbek licenses in time, we foresee an equally strong oversubscription in the local market as funds are likely to get larger allocations on the Tashkent Stock Exchange.

Post IPO, the government and Franklin Templeton have a robust timeline for additional IPOs. While we are optimistic, we presume many of these timelines for future IPOs will get delayed as they are nearly one year away, and many companies are not yet ready to list. Therefore, we’d rather focus on what’s directly in front of us, as this change in legislation and first IPO could transform the market as Uzbekistan’s capital markets enter a “no turning back” period.

While these privatisations are wonderful, their marketing is already attracting foreign funds into the local market. Funds are doing exactly as we predicted and are buying blue-chip companies, which are the AFC Uzbekistan Fund’s core holdings and are positively driving performance. As the market develops, we are optimistic that this could accelerate, leading to a further re-rating in the market and the fund’s performance, while providing a broader array of investment opportunities.

At the end of October 2025, the fund was invested in 23 names and held 9.1% in cash. The portfolio was allocated to Uzbekistan (90.8%) and Kyrgyzstan (0.1%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (57.3%) and materials (17.1%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 3.84x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 0.65x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 2.99%.

 
 
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AFC Asia Frontier Fund Performance

 

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund (AAFF) USD A-shares returned +0.8% in October 2025 with an NAV of USD 2,219.41. The MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index returned −1.1%, while the MSCI Frontier Markets Net Total Return USD Index went up by +0.6%, and the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index increased +2.0%. Year to date, the fund has delivered a +16.1% return. The performance of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund USD A-shares since inception on 30th March 2012 now stands at +121.9% while the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index returned +12.3% during the same period. The fund’s annualised performance since inception is +6.0%. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio has resulted in lower risk with an annualised volatility of 10.3% and a correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index of 0.49, all based on monthly observations since inception.

The final quarter of the year began on a positive note for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund. The drivers of performance were Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Kazakhstan. The negative contributors to performance were Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea, and Georgia.

Earnings season is underway in our universe with the fund’s Pakistani holdings declaring outstanding 3Q25 net profit growth as the economic momentum backed by lower interest rates has a positive effect on earnings in Pakistan. We expect the momentum in net profits to sustain going forward as Pakistan’s economy is only in its first year of recovery.

One of the companies which the fund holds in Pakistan is the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and this investment has done exceptionally well for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund since the initial purchase of PSX in March 2023. We purchased PSX at the bottom of the stock market and economic cycle, as we believed that PSX would be very well leveraged to a stock market recovery when market volumes picked back up.

In addition to owning and running the main stock exchange in Pakistan, PSX also owns prime real estate in downtown Karachi, which has the potential to be redeveloped, while it also owns a stake of 49% in the main Clearing House and 40% in the Depository in Pakistan, among other investments.

This thesis has played out well as a recovery in the economy has led to a major stock market rally in Pakistan in the last two years. PSX’s stock price has significantly outperformed the broader KSE-100 Index and in 3Q25, it declared net profit growth of 166% YoY.

Pakistan Stock Exchange has been a Multibagger for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund

(Source: Bloomberg, % change in prices between 24th March 2023 – 4th November 2025)

 

One of the fund’s key consumer positions in Sri Lanka, Hemas Holdings, declared excellent results with 3Q25 net profits growing by 37% YoY as consumption in Sri Lanka gains momentum on the back of robust GDP growth. We expect net profit growth for Hemas Holdings to sustain going forward as consumer spending power returns after many years of lacklustre growth.

 

Hemas Holdings in Sri Lanka a Key Outperformer for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund in 2025

Hemas Holdings in Sri Lanka has been a Key Outperformer for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund in 2025

(Source: Bloomberg, % change in prices between 31st December 2024 – 7th November 2025)

 

The much-improved economic outlook for Mongolia led S&P Global Ratings to upgrade the country’s sovereign rating because of outstanding economic activity led by its mining sector, linked to coal, copper, and gold production. This strong economic growth in Mongolia has also strengthened its overall fiscal position in terms of its debt/GDP ratio, which has reduced significantly in the last five years. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was a solid +5.7% and is forecasted to grow at 5.5% over the next few years. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund has a 9.1% weight to Mongolia.

 

Macro Stability has Significantly Improved in Mongolia (Debt to GDP)

Macro Stability has Significantly Improved in Mongolia (Debt to GDP)

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

 

The best-performing indexes in the AAFF universe in October were Oman (+8.3%) and Sri Lanka (+4.7%). The poorest-performing markets were Laos (−9.1%) and Bangladesh (−5.4%). The top-performing portfolio stocks this month were a copper explorer in Mongolia (+27.8%), a stock exchange operator in Pakistan (+25.4%), a Mongolian gold producer (+18.8%), a convenience store operator in Mongolia (+15.5%), and a Vietnamese jewellery retailer (+13.8%).

In October, the fund made two new purchases in Oman, which were the largest oil and gas producer and the largest telecom operator in the country. During the month, the fund also exited a Vietnamese commodity transportation company and added to its existing Vietnamese positions in a technology company and a jewellery company. The fund also added to existing positions in Mongolia.

At the end of October 2025, the portfolio was invested in 57 companies, 2 funds, and held 2.6% in cash. The two biggest stock positions were a cement producer in Pakistan (4.6%) and a bank in Kazakhstan (3.7%). The countries with the largest asset allocation were Pakistan (18.1%), Sri Lanka (14.4%), and Uzbekistan (10.2%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (36.4%) and consumer goods (20.2%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 6.80x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.31x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.82%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.17 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Iraq Fund Performance

 

The AFC Iraq Fund Class D shares returned −0.7% in October 2025 with a NAV of USD 2,299.43, underperforming its benchmark, the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index (RSISUSD index), which gained 0.6% during the month. The fund gained 43.5% in 2024 on the back of a stellar performance in 2023 of +110.4%. The fund is up by 12.0% for the year versus the index, which went up by 5.9%. Since inception, the fund has gained 129.9% while the RSISUSD index is up by 58.8%, an outperformance of 71.1%, achieving more than double the performance of the index. The annualised return since inception of the fund stands at +8.4% p.a.

The low trading volumes that marked the prior month continued into October, with the average daily turnover at around half the average daily turnover for the prior 12 months. Just as in the preceding month, the low volumes did not have a negative effect on prices, and the RSISX USD Index traded mostly at the upper end of its medium-term uptrend. Once again, this supports the thesis that the market’s technical picture continues to be positive, and that the RSISX USD Index is continuing with the process of consolidating its gains that started in December 2024, following a blistering 35.9% three-month rally. While this consolidation could continue over the next few weeks, the likely consolidation or pullback should be within its multi-month uptrend (chart below).

 

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

(Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, daily data as of 30th October 2025. 
Note: daily turnover adjusted for block trades)

 

The RSISX USD Index’s constituents’ performances were a mixed bag, with five stocks up and five down. Positive performances were led by Baghdad Soft Drinks (IBSD), which was up 8.1%, followed by the National Bank of Iraq (BNOI) up 6.5%, Iraqi Islamic Bank (BIIB) up 3.9%, and AsiaCell Telecom (TASC) up 0.5%. Decliners were led by Commercial Islamic Bank of Iraq (BCOI), which was down 9.1%, followed by Bank of Baghdad (BBOB) down 6.1%, Al-Mansour Pharmaceuticals Industries (IMAP) down 4.7%, Al-Mansour Bank (BMNS) down 4.3%, and the index’s latest constituent Baghdad Hotel (HBAG), that replaced Iraqi for Seed Production (AISP) at the beginning of the month, was down 0.4% in its first month as a member of the index.

Upcoming parliamentary elections, potential political stalemate and the theatrics of violence

The upcoming parliamentary elections on 11th November 2025, the sixth such elections since the U.S. invasion in 2003, will likely lead to a continuation of the current low market trading volumes into the next few weeks. The prior elections, irrespective of their results and the dramas that followed each, resulted in peaceful transfers of power from one government administration to another; however, the processes of government formations following each election were full of conflict and extended over many months. Current media coverage of the upcoming elections is focused on the intense competition between the ethno-sectarian parties and on the potential for political violence leading up to and following the elections. Most will be recalling and looking for parallels with the last elections in October 2021, and their surprising results that led to a 10-month political impasse over government formation that was marked by political violence. It ended then with a series of theatrics, starting with the multi-week melodrama of an occupation of parliament by the supporters of the Sadrist Movement, the apparent winners of the elections, and counterdemonstrations by the supporters of the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), the apparent losers of the elections. That eventually led to a night of intense armed conflict in Baghdad’s Green Zone between the two; however, it was immediately followed by a truce of sorts between the two. After which, the Sadrist Movement’s withdrawal from the political process, allowed the SCF to form a government, which within 9 months introduced the expansionary three-year budget of 2023-25 and embarked on significant infrastructure developments.  

In discounting and looking beyond the post-election drama, it was asserted here at the time, that irrespective of the political conflict and the theatrics of violence, all parties in the conflict, despite their fierce rivalry, have been members of the all-inclusive governments formed following successive elections post the U.S. invasion in 2003. Importantly, as major players in the post-2003 ethno-sectarian political order, all parties built substantial patronage networks and consequently could risk the loss of the wealth and sources of economic rent created by these networks if their conflict evolved into a violent confrontation. Supporting the assertions were the actions of the equity and the currency markets that discounted and looked beyond the political impasse and violent clashes.

The current political, societal and economic scene is very different from that of 2021 as the country is enjoying the fruits of three years of solid stability and strong economic growth. Nevertheless, these elections are fiercely contested by the country’s ethno-sectarian parties, and there is always the potential for political violence, especially the wild card of the Sadrist Movement’s potential re-entry into the political process and with that a repeat of the events following the 2021 elections. However, irrespective of how the current elections play out, even if they echo the events post the 2021 elections, the assertions made here then are still applicable, cemented further by the economic developments over the last three years. 

The over-arching theme, as discussed in the outlook for 2025, is that both of the two key dynamics discussed here often –the cumulative positive effects of the relative stability and structural banking developments– are in the early stages of their transformation of the Iraqi economy, a process that would unfold over the next few years, bringing with it high economic growth that would feed into higher corporate profits, and ultimately higher stock market returns. We believe that the fund’s holdings stand to capture these returns in the next few years in the same way that they did in 2023, 2024, and year-to-date 2025.

Post-elections, while these dynamics should continue to unfold as much as they did in 2023, 2024 and in early 2025, driving non-oil GDP and corporate profits, yet such growth will be from a much higher base, and the growth rate will slow down sharply from the heady rates of 2023 and 2024. Moreover, the tailwinds of prior strong oil prices are becoming, and will continue to be, headwinds over the next 9-12 months, given current expectations for weaker future oil prices as measured by Brent crude prices (chart below: green line for prior Brent prices, yellow line for future Brent prices). This implies, all things being equal, that the upcoming government will not have the wherewithal to pursue expansionary budgets, unlike the prior one, without the need for debt issuance to augment oil revenues. Over the next few years, the increased need by the government for debt will play a big role in developing the country’s bond market, which, in time, will bring with it “bond market discipline” that has the potential to positively influence the structural imbalances between current and investment spending that were perpetuated in every budget over the last two decades.

 

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices
As measured by Brent Futures Contacts (USD per Barrel)

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices As measured by Brent Futures Contacts (USD per barrel)

(Source: Investing.com, AFC Research, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of 31st October 2025)

 

At the end of October 2025, the AFC Iraq Fund was invested in 8 names and had a cash level of 2.8%. The fund invests in both local and foreign-listed companies that have the majority of their business activities in Iraq. The markets with the largest asset allocation is Iraq (97.2%).

The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (69.2%) and communications (17.7%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 6.88x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.93x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 7.05%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.06 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Vietnam Fund - Manager Comment

AFC Vietnam Fund Performance

 

The AFC Vietnam Fund returned −2.0% in October with a NAV of USD 3,634.90, bringing the 2025 return to +4.8% and return since inception to +263.5%. This month, the fund underperformed the benchmark, the Ho Chi Minh City VN Index, which lost 0.9% in USD terms. The fund’s annualised return since inception stands at +11.5% p.a. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio resulted in an annualised volatility of 14.75%, a Sharpe ratio of 0.65, and a low correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Index USD of 0.49, all based on monthly observations since inception.

 

VN-Index from September 2024 to October 2025

Relative Trump Tariff Advantage - Trade Weighted Own Tariff Hike vs Competitor (%)

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

Market Developments

Vietnam Upgraded to Emerging Market Status

On 7th October 2025, FTSE Russell officially announced the promotion of Vietnam’s stock market from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market (EM) status — a major milestone after years of preparation. The upgrade reflects Vietnam’s significant progress in market liberalisation, including the removal of pre-funding requirements, improved access for foreign investors, and ongoing enhancements to settlement systems (T+0) and bilingual reporting.

However, the reclassification is not immediate. Vietnam will undergo a 12-month observation period with an interim review in March 2026. The official upgrade will take effect on 21st September 2026 contingent on the full implementation of the KRX trading system and T+0 settlement.

Passive capital inflows are expected to start after the effective date, with global ETFs such as Vanguard and iShares anticipated to deploy USD 3.5–5 bn over the following 6–12 months. This influx is projected to lift market liquidity by 20–30%, deepen participation, and support a sustained rerating of Vietnamese equities.

Vietnam — An Outlier in Global Growth

Amid a world grappling with geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and a sluggish post-pandemic recovery, Vietnam stands out as a clear outlier, posting exceptional GDP growth that defies the global slowdown. While major economies such as Japan, South Korea, and China struggle with muted expansion and even ASEAN peers face mounting headwinds, Vietnam’s economy surged 8.23% year-on-year in Q3 2025, the fastest quarterly pace since 2022. This robust performance underscores Vietnam’s resilience and strategic focus on manufacturing, exports, and infrastructure, firmly positioning it as Asia’s fastest-growing major economy amid a broader regional slowdown.

Regionally, Vietnam’s growth far outpaced its ASEAN peers. Indonesia expanded 5.06%, supported by commodities but restrained by soft domestic demand; the Philippines achieved 5.8%, driven by remittances and services; Thailand grew just 2.2%, constrained by household debt and a sluggish tourism rebound; and Singapore’s 2.9% reflected weak global trade. With ASEAN’s average growth around 4.9%, Vietnam’s momentum clearly reinforces its role as the region’s economic frontrunner.

 

Vietnam is the Fastest-Growing Economy in ASEAN in 3Q2025

Vietnam is the Fastest-Growing Economy in ASEAN in 3Q2025

(Source: Bloomberg, AFC Research)

 

Vietnam’s exceptional Q3 performance was driven by a 9.5% surge in the industrial and construction sector, supported by a robust 18.3% rise in exports fueled by strong FDI inflows (+15.2%) and continued supply chain diversification from China. The services sector expanded 8.6%, underpinned by a sharp rebound in tourism, with foreign arrivals generating USD 11.1 bn in the first nine months of 2025, up 21% year-on-year. As a result, Vietnam’s GDP grew 7.85% in the first nine months, keeping it firmly on track to meet the government’s 8.0–8.5% annual growth target, while inflation remained contained at 3.8%.

Vietnam’s Exports to the U.S. Surge by 27% YoY 

According to data from the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam’s exports to the United States reached USD 112 bn in the first nine months of 2025, a 27% year-on-year increase, marking a new record high. The U.S. remains Vietnam’s largest export market, accounting for over 32% of total export turnover, despite the reciprocal 20% tariff imposed under the “Trump 2.0” administration. This remarkable growth not only dispels earlier concerns about a trade slowdown but also highlights the resilience and competitiveness of Vietnam’s export sector, led by strong performance in electronics (+62.8% YoY) and machinery (+26.1% YoY), which more than offset the impact of higher tariffs.

 

Export to the U.S. (USD bn)

Export to the U.S. (USD bn)

(Source: GSO, AFC Research)

 

This recovery underscores the effectiveness of Vietnam’s supply chain diversification and value-added processing strategies. Despite global trade uncertainty, exports to the U.S. have continued to surge, driving total export turnover in the first nine months to USD 348.7 bn (+16% YoY). Full-year 2025 exports to the U.S. are forecast to reach USD 130–150 bn, setting a new record. This resilience highlights Vietnam’s adaptability and competitiveness, transforming external challenges into growth opportunities. Furthermore, on 26th October 2025, at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Vietnam and the U.S. signed a framework trade agreement to reduce reciprocal tariffs to 0% on select Vietnamese exports—paving the way for sustained trade momentum ahead.

 

PM Pham Minh Chinh Meets President Trump

PM Pham Minh Chinh Meets President Trump

(Source: VnExpress)

 

Vietnam’s Exports to the U.S. Surge by 27% YoY 

According to data from the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam’s exports to the United States reached USD 112 bn in the first nine months of 2025, a 27% year-on-year increase, marking a new record high. The U.S. remains Vietnam’s largest export market, accounting for over 32% of total export turnover, despite the reciprocal 20% tariff imposed under the “Trump 2.0” administration. This remarkable growth not only dispels earlier concerns about a trade slowdown but also highlights the resilience and competitiveness of Vietnam’s export sector, led by strong performance in electronics (+62.8% YoY) and machinery (+26.1% YoY), which more than offset the impact of higher tariffs.

In 3Q25, their financial performances exceeded expectations:

  • TNG achieved record-high revenue and net profit in its history, driven by robust U.S. and EU orders.
  • MPC posted a threefold YoY profit surge, benefiting from global shrimp supply disruptions (India’s 50% U.S. import tariff and Indonesia’s FDA-related export ban).
  • PTB recorded double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, supported by solid furniture and granite exports.

Additionally, most of our top 10 portfolio holdings delivered double-digit earnings growth in 3Q25.

Despite these stellar fundamentals, market sentiment remains excessively cautious, leaving these high-quality exporters deeply undervalued — trading at forward P/E ratios of just 6–7x, roughly half the VN-Index average.

History proves that earnings strength precedes stock price recovery. When capital flows return, these export leaders will rally first and fastest. Our conviction remains firm: the rebound in Vietnam’s export stocks is not a matter of if, but when — and when it comes, it will be explosive. Now is the time to position for the next wave.

At the end of October 2025, the fund’s largest positions were: Lam Dong Minerals and Building Materials (8.9%) – a building material supplier, Agriculture Bank Insurance (7.5%) – an insurance company, Minh Phu Seafood Corp (7.2%) – a seafood company, Thien Long Group (5.7%) – a manufacturer of office supplies, and TNG Investment and Trading JSC (5.7%) – an apparel manufacturer.

The portfolio was invested in 33 names and held 2.5% in cash. The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were consumer (39.5%) and financials (36.8%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 10.11x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.40x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.84%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 2.75 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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Disclaimer:

This Newsletter is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. No such offer or solicitation will be made prior to the delivery of the Offering Documents. Before making an investment decision, potential investors should review the Offering Documents and inform themselves as to the legal requirements and tax consequences within the countries of their citizenship, residence, domicile and place of business with respect to the acquisition, holding or disposal of shares, and any foreign exchange restrictions that may be relevant thereto. This newsletter is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law and regulation, and is intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is intended. The information and opinions contained in this Newsletter have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources deemed reliable. Opinions expressed are current as of the date appearing in this Newsletter only. Neither Asia Frontier Capital Ltd (AFCL), nor any of its subsidiaries or affiliates will make any representation or warranty to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements”, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of Funds managed by AFCL or its subsidiaries and affiliates may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

For Switzerland only: This is an advertising document. The state of the origin of the fund is the Cayman Islands. This document may only be provided to qualified investors within the meaning of art. 10 para. 3 and 3ter CISA. In Switzerland, the representative is Acolin Fund Services AG, Maintower, Thurgauerstrasse 36/38, 8050 Zurich, Switzerland, whilst the paying agent is NPB Neue Privat Bank AG, Limmatquai 1 / am Bellevue, 8024 Zurich, Switzerland. The basic documents of the fund report may be obtained free of charge from the representative. Past performance is no indication of current or future performance. The performance data do not take account of the commissions, if any, and fund transfer costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units.

AFC Asia Frontier Fund is registered for sale to qualified/professional investors in Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. AFC Iraq Fund and AFC Uzbekistan Fund in Singapore, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. AFC Vietnam Fund in Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. 

By accessing information contained herein, users are deemed to be representing and warranting that they are either a Hong Kong Professional Investor or are observing the applicable laws and regulations of their relevant jurisdictions.

© Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. All rights reserved.

 
 
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