|
The AFC Uzbekistan Fund Class F shares returned +5.6% in October 2025 with a NAV of USD 1,391.43, bringing the year-to-date return to +10.8% and the return since inception (29th March 2019) to +39.1%.
We may look back on October 2025 as the step-change we’ve been waiting for in Uzbekistan’s capital markets since the launch of the AFC Uzbekistan Fund. During the month, Franklin Templeton and the government of Uzbekistan held what we believe was the largest single attraction of private sector investor capital represented in one room in Uzbekistan’s history, all centered around the privatisation of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) via the capital markets.
For years we have harped on the very simple thesis that for the capital markets to function properly, and for a re-rate in equities to occur, we need to see trust and animal spirits instilled among local and foreign investors. To do this, we need to see the “crown jewels” of Uzbekistan’s SOEs be privatised (ideally dual listed) at attractive prices where investors can make money as these companies increase operating efficiency, leading to profit growth. We expect increased investor participation to then lead to more demand for corporate bonds yielding >20% (as investors turn away from Uzbek som term deposits as interest rates fall) and thereafter to support private sector IPOs. This appears to all finally be kicking into high gear, though we are focused on near-term catalysts rather than getting excited about the government’s broader privatisation program, as there is a near-term progression needed to ensure long-term momentum. Though we are arguably the most optimistic we’ve been since launching the AFC Uzbekistan Fund, the coming months’ catalysts will be critical to confirm our thesis.
UzNIF Capital Markets Conference
From 22nd to 24th October, Franklin Templeton (FT) and the government of Uzbekistan hosted, by our calculation, the largest single attraction of private sector capital to Uzbekistan in the country’s history, with over USD 1 trillion represented in the room for the planned IPO of the Uzbekistan National Investment Fund “UzNIF”. Buy-side institutions and hedge funds comprised the majority of the foreigners in attendance out of a conference of roughly 300 persons. There was a buzz in the air that we have not felt in previous conferences organised in Tashkent.
Ironically, Uzbekistan’s capital markets development has been held hostage by its rapid transformation across the economy, which has caused severe paralysis over the years. This explains why two prior privatisation programs fell into the ether after much excitement. This time however feels very different as the spotlight is squarely on FT’s management of UzNIF and its planned dual listing on the London and Tashkent Stock Exchanges in the first quarter of 2026.
UzNIF is a special purpose vehicle currently owned 100% by the government of Uzbekistan, where the government has vended in its shares in 18 SOEs: from the national airline, Uzbekistan Airways, to financial services companies, electricity generation companies, water distribution, etc. The IPO plan calls for 25% to 30% of UzNIF to be floated.
UzNIF is part of a broader privatisation program where the government plans to IPO Uzbekistan Airways, the national gold company, Navoiy, as well as the national uranium company, several banks, and other entities. The total is roughly 14 companies, and hopefully, following success from UzNIF, the others are teed up for IPO over the next several years.
Another False Start or is it "Real" this Time?
So, we’ve seen privatisation announcements in the past and, understanding how Uzbekistan functions, are looking at this privatisation drive in a much more pragmatic way. Rather than being ebullient about all the companies that are planned to be listed and taking the government at its word, we are asking ourselves what stepping stones are needed to achieve success?
We saw roughly 100 institutional investors in Tashkent last week who were excited by the country’s prospects and a liquid vehicle to get exposure, while simultaneously throwing rocks at the various portfolio companies, as they should.
Firstly, we need to see capital markets reform with new legislation passed. Long-time readers know we have talked about the capital markets legislation stuck in parliament since 2021. This legislation, for lack of a better term, has been voided and in recent months the government has been working with international banks, Franklin Templeton, the financial regulator and other parties to take the best pieces of that legacy legislation and draft it into a simple, umbrella legislation which is clear and concise, and where future bylaws can be added without having to be approved by parliament. This is a significant step and will include items like fungibility of shares between dual-listed companies, segregated accounts for brokerages, and taking the current “sandbox” legislation and making it standard legislation. The latter should see several new international custodians enter the market, and we are aware of several already applying for licenses.
So, what’s the timeline? We are told that this new capital markets legislation is planned to be included in the final session of parliament in December 2025, where this would be approved at the same time as the national budget for 2026. The legislation is ready, and we are told the budget is not, so for the time being, it appears to be an education process among members of parliament to ensure this legislation is passed and nothing of importance is stripped from it. Time will tell. We are also told that Franklin Templeton moving ahead with the IPO of UzNIF is conditional on this legislation being passed in time, but that’s merely them trying to sound tough in our opinion, for the IPO is likely to go ahead regardless. Nonetheless, this is the first and most important stepping stone in the process of broader privatisation.
The next step will be the actual IPO of UzNIF on the London and Tashkent Stock Exchanges in the first quarter of 2026. The interest is most certainly there and it would not be a surprise to see it oversubscribed by 3-5 times (similar to the country’s Eurobonds) with the interest we saw in the room and the diversification asset managers are looking to get to the one of the fastest growing regions in the world (Uzbekistan’s 2025 GDP growth estimate is 6.6% by the Asian Development Bank).
UzNIF has a net asset value of USD ~2 bln at present, and if 30% was sold in an IPO, we are looking at USD 600 million, which arguably a single large fund could absorb. So, it’s very clear that investors will be cut back abroad, and if international custodians get their Uzbek licenses in time, we foresee an equally strong oversubscription in the local market as funds are likely to get larger allocations on the Tashkent Stock Exchange.
Post IPO, the government and Franklin Templeton have a robust timeline for additional IPOs. While we are optimistic, we presume many of these timelines for future IPOs will get delayed as they are nearly one year away, and many companies are not yet ready to list. Therefore, we’d rather focus on what’s directly in front of us, as this change in legislation and first IPO could transform the market as Uzbekistan’s capital markets enter a “no turning back” period.
While these privatisations are wonderful, their marketing is already attracting foreign funds into the local market. Funds are doing exactly as we predicted and are buying blue-chip companies, which are the AFC Uzbekistan Fund’s core holdings and are positively driving performance. As the market develops, we are optimistic that this could accelerate, leading to a further re-rating in the market and the fund’s performance, while providing a broader array of investment opportunities.
At the end of October 2025, the fund was invested in 23 names and held 9.1% in cash. The portfolio was allocated to Uzbekistan (90.8%) and Kyrgyzstan (0.1%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (57.3%) and materials (17.1%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 3.84x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 0.65x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 2.99%.
|