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Key Asian Frontier Markets Receive Favourable U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs - July 2025 Update

Key Asian Frontier Markets Receive Favourable U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs - July 2025 Update
 

 

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“For the investor who knows what he is doing, volatility creates opportunity.”

– John Train- American investment advisor and writer

 

 
 
 
 NAV1Performance3
 (USD)July
2025
Year to DateSince
Inception
AFC Asia Frontier Fund USD A2,040.32+2.4%+6.7%+104.0%

MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index2

 +14.0%+27.1%+0.4%
AFC Iraq Fund USD D2,246.58+3.0%+9.5%+124.7%
Rabee Securities US Dollar Equity Index +1.3%+0.2%+50.3%
AFC Uzbekistan Fund USD F1,281.21+1.3%+2.0%+21.8%

Tashkent Stock Exchange Index (in USD)

 +3.2%+2.9%-28.8%
AFC Vietnam Fund USD C3,608.78+5.3%+4.1%+260.9%
Ho Chi Minh City VN Index (in USD) +8.8%+15.4%+138.0%
 
 
  1. The NAV given is for the lead share series for the relevant master fund. Investors’ holdings may be in a different share class, series, or currency and have a different NAV. See the factsheets and your statement for full details.
  2. Between 31st May 2017 and 30th November 2021 the benchmark was adjusted to be 37% of the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index “MSCI Index” and 63% of the Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index in USD due to the removal of Pakistan from the MSCI Index during this period.
  3. NAV and performance figures are all net of fees.
 
 

 

 

It was a very strong month for Asian frontier markets and all four AFC Funds reported a positive month, which is in line with our expectation that the second half of 2025 should see greater momentum in our investment universe. 

The U.S. announced its updated reciprocal tariffs on 31st July 2025 and many of our key markets like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam saw a significant downward revision in their reciprocal tariffs compared to what was announced on 2nd April 2025.

 

Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam have seen a Large Reduction in U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs

Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam have seen a Large Reduction in U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs

(Source: U.S. Government)

 

Even though exports to the U.S. are not a very significant proportion of GDP for countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, these lower tariffs are important for their garment and textile industries, which support foreign exchange earnings and employment and count the U.S. as their largest export market.

More importantly, the announcement of these new reciprocal tariffs removes a significant overhang on investor uncertainty, and now investors will be able to better focus on the domestic economic momentum that is underway in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, which is the key driver of stock market returns in these three countries.

 

Bangladesh Led Returns in July 2025 (in USD)

Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam have seen a Large Reduction in U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs

(Source: U.S. Government)

 

AFC Quarterly Webinar Successfully Held on 24th July 2025

We held our regular quarterly webinar to update existing and potential investors on the ongoing performance and outlook of the AFC Funds. As has become the norm, the webinar was well attended and the listeners posted excellent questions. To learn more on the outlook for our markets and the AFC Funds, you can watch the recording or view the presentation below.

 

AFC Webinar YouTube link

 

AFC Webinar Presentation link

 
 

BarclayHedge Awards

BarclayHedge Awards

 

Our work was recently acknowledged through an award from BarclayHedge. The AFC Vietnam Fund was ranked in the Top 10 funds in the sector “Emerging Markets – Asia”. This award is a testament to the validity of the investment thesis of the AFC Vietnam Fund and underlines that it is well-suited as a diversification tool for many equity investors.

 

August 2025 Subscription Cut-Off Date

The next cut-off date for subscriptions for our funds will be 25th August 2025. If you would like to know more about the subscription process, please get in touch with us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Please find below the managers’ comments on each of our four funds for July 2025.

 
 
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Upcoming AFC Travel

Thomas Hugger, Ruchir Desai, and Peter de Vries are based in Hong Kong, while Andreas Vogelsanger is based in Bangkok, Vicente Nguyen in Ho Chi Minh City, Scott Osheroff in Tashkent, and Ahmed Tabaqchali in London and Iraq. If you have an interest in meeting with our team at their homeports or during their travels, please contact Peter de Vries at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

AFC Travel

London, UK 12th August - 4th October Ahmed Tabaqchali
Dhaka, Bangladesh 13th - 14th August Ruchir Desai
Singapore 14th - 15th August Andreas Vogelsanger
London, UK 15th August Thomas Hugger
The Hague, the Netherlands 16th - 20th August Peter de Vries
Hong Kong 25th August - 5th September Andreas Vogelsanger
Astana, Kazakhstan 4th - 6th September Ruchir Desai
Almaty, Kazakhstan 11th September Ruchir Desai
Hanoi, Vietnam 22nd - 25th September Ruchir Desai
 
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AFC Vietnam Fund - Manager Comment

AFC Vietnam Fund Performance

 

The AFC Vietnam Fund returned +5.3% in July with a NAV of USD 3,608.78, bringing the 2025 return to +4.1% and return since inception to +260.9%. This month, the fund underperformed the benchmark, the Ho Chi Minh City VN Index, which gained 8.8% in USD terms. The fund’s annualised return since inception stands at +11.7% p.a. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio resulted in an annualised volatility of 14.85%, a Sharpe ratio of 0.66, and a low correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Index USD of 0.50, all based on monthly observations since inception.

In July 2025, the VN-Index decisively surpassed the critical 1,500-point threshold, a key milestone that underscores the market’s strong momentum. This rally was primarily driven by the outperformance of real estate stocks, particularly Vingroup’s flagship holdings VIC (Vingroup JSC) and VHM (Vinhomes JSC), which played a significant role in lifting the benchmark despite appearing significantly overvalued. Due to the AFC Vietnam Fund’s value-oriented investment approach, such stocks are excluded from our portfolio.

 

VN-Index from June 2024 to July 2025

VN-Index from June 2024 to July 2025

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

Market Developments

Vingroup stocks, particularly VIC, soared by 10.3% to close at 105,500 VND/share, contributing 1% to the VN-Index’s overall gain. This surge was largely fuelled by speculative enthusiasm among local retail investors amid circulating rumours that Vingroup may be awarded the USD 67 bn North-South High-Speed Railway project. The speculation intensified following the creation of Vinspeed—a newly established Vingroup subsidiary capitalised at VND 15 tn (USD 570 m)—financed through the transfer of 135 m VIC shares by Chairman Pham Nhat Vuong. This move reinforced VIC’s central role in funding the potential railway venture and magnified its influence on the market.

Government-endorsed environmental initiatives, including proposed bans on petrol-powered motorbikes in central Hanoi and similar plans under consideration in Ho Chi Minh City, further buoyed investor sentiment around Vingroup. These policies have significantly brightened the long-term outlook for VinFast. Meanwhile, VHM, Vietnam’s largest real estate company, rose by 17.3%, contributing an additional 0.9% to the VN-Index’s rise, supported by Vinhomes’ announcement of a major 277-hectare urban development project in northwest Bac Ninh, set to begin on 19th August 2025, with a total investment of VND 41.27 tn (USD 1.57 bn).

Despite these tailwinds and visible government support, we continue to view Vingroup stocks as significantly overvalued—a position we have consistently outlined in prior reports—and therefore maintain our decision to exclude them from the AFC Vietnam Fund portfolio.

Another significant driver of the market in July was the real estate sector, which climbed by 14.4%, fuelled by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s commitment to resolving legal bottlenecks affecting more than 3,000 property projects. The move aims to reduce housing inventory and revive market activity. This policy shift sparked aggressive buying among local retail investors, leading to sharp rallies even in distressed stocks. A notable example was LDG Investment (LDG), which surged over 83% following the release from jail of its former chairman in July 2025, despite the company having declared bankruptcy in 2024. This underscores the speculative fever currently gripping the market.

 

Real Estate Sector (VNAllShare Real Estate) from June 2024 to July 2025

Real Estate Sector (VNAllShare Real Estate) from June 2024 to July 2025

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

In our assessment, only a select group of fundamentally strong real estate companies stand to benefit meaningfully from the proposed policies, provided they are implemented effectively. Meanwhile, weaker firms are likely to continue facing significant challenges to their survival. Despite this, speculative enthusiasm has fuelled a broad-based rally, indiscriminately inflating stock prices across the sector. This trend underscores the market's irrational exuberance and investors’ heightened susceptibility to hype.

 

LDG Investment from May 2024 to July 2025

LDG from May 2024 to July 2025

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

A key positive development is the Vietnamese government’s accommodative monetary policy, with credit growth accelerating to 9.9% in the first half of 2025, up from just 6% in 2024, injecting over USD 57 bn (equivalent to 13% of GDP) into the economy. Combined with an upward revision of the inflation target from 4.5% to 5.0%, this reflects a deliberate policy shift favouring growth. As a result, Vietnam is well-positioned to surpass its ambitious GDP growth target of 8.0% for 2025. This liquidity surge has first manifested in asset markets, especially equities, pushing the VN-Index decisively above the key 1,500-point threshold. Daily trading value jumped to USD 1.23 bn in July, up from USD 680 mn in June, outpacing regional peers such as Singapore (USD 850 mn), Thailand (USD 1,080 mn), and Indonesia (USD 740 mn), according to Bloomberg data.

 

Average Daily Market Liquidity in July (USD mn per day)

Average Daily Market Liquidity in July (USD m per day)

(Source: AFC Research, Bloomberg)

 

In addition to the relaxed monetary policy, the Vietnamese stock market has been energized by a wave of new local individual investors. The number of trading accounts surged from 6 mn at the end of 2022 to over 10 mn by the end of July 2025, an influx of more than 4 mn new participants. This sharp increase contrasts with the previous three years (2022–2024), when even modest gains of 10–15% in the VN-Index often led to immediate corrections, mainly due to limited liquidity. In contrast, the current rally appears to represent a true breakout, supported by a confluence of positive macroeconomic and structural factors. If this momentum continues, we believe the VN-Index could reach 1,800 points in the near future.

Emerging Market Upgrade - Update

On 17th July 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh held a landmark meeting with Mr. Gerald Toledano, Director of FTSE Russell, at the Government Head Office in Hanoi to discuss the potential upgrade of Vietnam’s stock market to emerging market status. This was the first official engagement between a Vietnamese head of government and a senior FTSE Russell representative, underscoring a strong mutual commitment to accelerate Vietnam’s stock market development.

 

PM Pham Minh Chinh meets FTSE Russell Director

PM Pham Minh Chinh meets FTSE Russel Director

(Source: Nhan Dan News)

 

While no official timeline has been announced, speculation among local investors suggests Vietnam’s stock market could be upgraded to emerging market status as early as September 2025 or March 2026. This optimism has been fuelled by a notable return of foreign investors, who shifted from net selling USD 1.5 bn in the first six months of 2025 to net buying USD 312 mn in July. The renewed foreign interest has strengthened local confidence in an imminent upgrade, with potential capital inflows of USD 6-8 bn expected to provide meaningful support to the market if the reclassification materialises.

 

Foreign Net Flow TTM (USDmn)

Foreign Net Flow TTM (USDmn)

(Source: Vietcap Securities)

 

As long-term investors, we believe it is essential to anchor our outlook in Vietnam’s underlying fundamentals rather than rely solely on technical factors. In Q2 2025, the country’s GDP grew by a robust 7.96% year-on-year, the fastest in the region, underscoring Vietnam’s ability to meet or surpass its full-year growth target of 8.0%. Looking ahead, the government has set even more ambitious goals, aiming for 10% GDP growth in both 2026 and 2027. This bold vision reflects confidence in the country’s transformative trajectory despite ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy. As noted in our June report, Resolution 68 remains a key structural driver, unlocking Vietnam’s vast domestic economic potential.

 

Vietnam GDP Growth

Vietnam GDP Growth

(Source: AFC Research, Vietnam Government, GSO, Vietcapital)

 

In addition to strong macroeconomic momentum, corporate earnings have also impressed. According to SSI and FiinGroup, listed companies in Vietnam recorded profit growth of 20–25% year-on-year in Q2 2025, led by banking, export, and public investment sectors. Our portfolio outperformed this trend, with earnings rising over 25%, driven by exceptional contributions from key holdings. Notably, Lam Dong Construction Materials and Minerals (LBM), our largest position, posted a record quarterly profit with a 160% year-on-year increase. We estimate LBM’s net profit could double in 2025. Export-oriented holdings such as TNG (+39%) and PTB (+40%) also reported robust growth, while Minh Phu Seafood (MPC), Vietnam’s largest shrimp exporter, delivered a remarkable 250% surge in net profit. With such strong performance across our holdings and a sharply rising market nearing all-time highs, we are confident the AFC Vietnam Fund is on track to surpass its previous NAV peak established in 2022.

 

Profit Growth Q2 2025 YoY

Profit Growth Q2 2025 yoy

(Source: AFC Research, HOSE)

 

At the end of July 2025, the fund’s largest positions were: Lam Dong Minerals and Building Materials (9.1%) – a building material supplier, Agriculture Bank Insurance (6.8%) – an insurance company, Thien Long Group (5.9%) – a manufacturer of office supplies, TNG Investment and Trading JSC (5.9%) – an apparel manufacturer, and Dong Hai JSC of Bentre (4.8%) – a packaging manufacturing company.

The portfolio was invested in 38 names and held 13.6% in cash. The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were consumer (34.1%) and financials (30.5%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 10.80x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.40x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.84%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 2.09 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Iraq Fund Performance

 

The AFC Iraq Fund Class D shares returned +3.0% in July 2025 with NAV of USD 2,246.58, outperforming its benchmark, the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index (RSISUSD index), which gained 1.3% during the month. The fund gained 43.5% in 2024 on the back of a stellar performance in 2023 of +110.4%. The fund is up by 9.5% for the year versus the index, which went up by 0.2%. Since inception, the fund has gained 124.7% while the RSISUSD index is up by 50.3%, an outperformance of 74.4%, achieving more than double the performance of the index. The annualised return since inception of the fund stands at +8.3% p.a.

The RSISX USD Index continued with the process of consolidating its gains that started in December 2024, following a blistering 35.9% three-month rally. While this consolidation could continue over the next few weeks, the market’s technical picture continues to be positive, and the likely consolidation or pullback should be within its multi-month uptrend. Trading volumes continue to support this thesis, as the average daily turnover for the month followed the patterns discussed previously (chart below).

 

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

(Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, daily data as of 31st July 2025. Note: daily turnover adjusted for block trades1)

 

More of Iraq, as Seen Through a Visitor’s Eyes

As first mentioned two months ago, Thomas Hugger visited Iraq at the end of May, and with me, embarked on a tour of the country that included business visits, cultural, and historic tours. Last month, we reviewed our visit to the ISX, the Bank of Baghdad, and Baghdad Soft Drinks, which were also featured during the AFC Iraq Fund section of Asia Frontier Capital’s latest quarterly webinar on 24th July 2025, providing its regular “Asian Frontier Markets Update”. This month reviews our visit to some of Baghdad’s old districts (Al-Madrasa Al-Mustansiriya, Al-Mutanabbi Street, and Al-Shawaka), the ancient cities of Babylon, and Ctesiphon. Next month, will review our visit to the ancient city of Ur, the Marshes, the meeting point of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers forming Shatt Al Arab at Al-Qurnah, and Iraq’s third largest city, Basra.

Our plan for the tour of some of Baghdad’s old districts was for a walkabout that would start with a visit to “Qasr Al-Abbasi (the Abbasid Palace)”, a magnificent structure built in the 12th century and one of the oldest historic buildings left standing in Baghdad. Baghdad was built in the 8th century, but many of its buildings and structures no longer exist due to a repeating pattern of destroying the old to build the new throughout the city’s history, many times using the old structures as building materials for the new. However, upon arrival, we found the site to be closed. Most of Iraq’s historic attractions’ opening hours aren’t consistent with tourism, in that they tend to follow official working hours, and so aren’t aligned with the likely schedules of tourists, foreign or domestic, especially during evenings, weekends, or holidays. This example highlights the need for a mindset shift to embrace tourism and unlock its values in contributing to job creation, and economic growth given the breadth and richness of the country’s history: “in the landscape of recorded history, Iraq is Everest: just as Everest makes other mountains seem small, Iraq makes ancient history seem recent by comparison”. The increasing influx of tourists encouraged by the relative stability that the country has been enjoying over the last few years has acted as a catalyst for such a shift. The first to respond has been the private sector with the construction of hotels and of those within the other sectors in the broader hospitality and tourism industry. Baghdad alone has over 20 new ongoing hotel and resort developments, in addition to those built recently and those that are being renovated, such as the Ishtar hotel that we reported on last month.

On the potential economic growth that tourism can provide, based on the experience of visiting AFC’s investable universe that include hidden gems for investment and tourist attractions, Thomas notes: “As we all know from our history classes, Mesopotamia, which is basically the region around the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, was already settled 10,000 years BC and is considered one of the earliest civilisations. It was also the region where the wheel was invented and scripts, mathematics, astronomy and agriculture were developed. Needless to say, there are so many interesting places to see in an area multiple times bigger than, for example, the famous UNESCO World Heritage of Angkor Wat in Siem Reap, Cambodia, which attracts each year about 2.5 million tourists. I can easily imagine that, in the future, thanks to the stability in Iraq, more tourists will visit this country full of history, and the tourist arrivals will beat the figure of Angkor Wat, which is beautiful but much smaller than the entire Mesopotamia region.”

While we were disappointed with the closure of Qasr Al-Abassi, we were glad that the next item on our walkabout, “Al-Madrasa Al-Mustansiriya”, located within walking distance, was open. Al-Madrasa is an Abbasid era scholarly complex, built in the 13th century, which, in addition to Islamic religious studies, taught mathematics, astronomy, medicine, and philosophy. We were almost alone throughout the visit, with the exception of a few visitors, most of whom were foreign, who arrived just as we were leaving. While not my first visit, I was still impressed by the splendid architecture and the water-powered clock in the middle of the courtyard, which sadly is no longer in operation; while Thomas notes: “The complex reminded me of the architecture in places like Bukhara, Khiva and Samarqand in Uzbekistan. All of them are impressive and beautiful but in contrast to its Uzbek counterparts, hardly any visitors were to be seen in Baghdad. I am sure that will change soon.” Supporting Thomas’s last comment, such a change, overtime, could lead to Iraq being a major historical and cultural tourist attraction that coupled with the current, major but underutilized religious tourism, would support economic diversification and growth.

 

Al-Madrasa Al-Mustansiriya

Al-Madrasa Al-Mustansiriya

(Source: AFC Research)

 

Soon after that, we crossed the street into “Souq Al-Saray” whose other entrance is connected to “Al-Mutanabbi Street”, which is more than just a street, as it more of an intellectual, literary, and cultural complex composed of the street itself, the “Baghdadi Cultural Centre”, and “Al-Qishla” compound. Sadly, the last two were closed just like Al-Qasr Al Abassi, however, they were covered in the mid-2022 market report “Sandstorms, and a stroll down Al-Mutanabbi Street” with plenty of photos with a brief history of each. Al-Mutanabbi is jam-packed with traditional booksellers displaying all kinds of books both in outdoor stalls and in bookstores – an embodiment of the old Arab saying, “Egyptians write, Lebanese publish, Iraqis read”; which to me brings back fond memories of my youth spent searching for books to satisfy my thirst, after devouring my grandfather’s huge library. 

Despite the closure of the Baghdadi Cultural Centre, and Al-Qishla, we had tea at the famous “Al-Shabandar Café” (such places primarily serve tea, but coffee also, although I have never seen coffee served nor heard anyone asking for coffee) which was first covered in AFC’s August 2019 “Iraq travel report: Significant social and economic transformation”, then writing “... the Café personifies the street and Iraq’s revival – in 2010 a car bomb almost destroyed the café, killing thirty people including the owner’s four sons and grandson. However, Mohammad Al-Khashali reopened the café soon after and insisted on maintaining its open-minded culture as a home to Iraqi writers and intellectuals from all faiths for generations, even during the darkest years of sectarian warfare”. Sadly, we weren’t able to meet Mohammad al-Khashali, who had died in January 2025 at the age of 93, and for me, his daily presence at the café is sorely missed. We had the traditional Iraqi style tea, or “Chai”, a staple of Iraqis that keeps us going throughout the day from morning to night, and while Thomas tasted it on the first day, the chai at Al-Shabandar feels different, at least to me. Thomas notes: “The café was very crowded, and we were lucky to find a space to sit. Immediately thereafter, a waiter came with chai on a tray. The chai was, as usual in Iraq, very sweet and extremely hot. It took some time until I could touch the immensely hot glass and enjoy the first sip of tea. In the meantime, my neighbour started talking to me and, to my surprise, he switched to German after he found out that I am originally from Switzerland. His German was great despite the fact that he was never in a German-speaking country in his life, and he told me, to my surprise, that he learned it from reading books and newspapers. The atmosphere in the teahouse is iconic and the walls are lined with old photographs, books and paintings. It was very lively and guests were discussing very loudly, and some of them were smoking shisha or cigarettes in the café, which is still very typical in the Middle East.”

 

Al-Shabandar, Al-Sarai, and Across the Tigris

Al-Shabandar, Al-Sarai, and across the Tigris

(Source: AFC Research)

 

Following that, we turned to “Zuqaq Al-Sarai (Al-Sarai Street)”, whose many historic buildings, including Al-Qishla, recently underwent a major restoration as part of the “Pulse of Baghdad” initiative. After which we crossed the Tigris by boat to the Karkh side of the city, and the short walk to “Souq Al-Shawka”, heading for its famous “Masgouf” shops. Masgouf, is a uniquely Iraqi way of grilling fish that dates back over four and a half thousand years to the Sumerians, and doesn’t seem to have changed much since then according to Sumerian texts. After Thomas choose our fish from the fish pool of one of the Masgouf shops, we went to the adjacent tea house, that served also as a restaurant for the Masgouf shops as none of them had its own eating area, and enjoyed a few rounds of chai, “Chai Hamouth” – made and served like chai, but using Basra dried limes instead of tea leaves, and soft drinks. After an hour’s wait, we feasted on the delicious fish, served with plates of red rice –cooking the fish takes an hour or so as it is cooked standing vertically, in a ring with other such fish, around the fire. Thomas, who is not a big fish fan, nevertheless enjoyed it, and he notes: “When I was mentally preparing what to expect and experience from this trip to Iraq I never expected that I will eat fish three days in a row in Iraq since I was thinking kebab will be the staple meal but I was proved wrong! The masgouf fish was tasty and interestingly, Ahmed’s brother helped me to choose a male fish since some part of it seems to be tastier and richer in protein compared with a female fish! It was also the place where Ahmed and his brother decided to address me going forward with “Abu Debbie” (father of Debbie) since parents in Iraq are called after their first child’s name within friends and families, and I really enjoyed being called like this while in Iraq!”.

 

Masgouf at Al-Shawka

Masgouf at Al-Shawka

(Source: AFC Research)

 

The next day, we started early for the drive to Babylon, followed by a drive to Ctesiphon. Our guide, Ali Ghanem Sarhan, was one of my students at Baghdad Business School (BBS), who is now an independent freelance tour guide specialising in cultural and historical tours. His rich Instagram account (@alighanim.1) chronicles him criss-crossing the country with tourists from across the world.

Babylon, believed to be home to the “Tower of Babel” and the "Hanging Gardens” of legend, is one of the most magnificent cities of ancient Iraq, and founded over four thousand years ago. The Babylonians, and before them, the Sumerians and Akkadians, made use of the rich muddy sediments deposited over centuries by the flooding of the Tigris and Euphrates, by employing mudbricks in the construction of the ancient cities, Babylon included. They fitted Mesopotamia’s environment perfectly and provided great insulation in the country’s extremes of heat and cold; however, many have not survived the thousands of years unscathed due to the combination of the effects of the natural elements, neglect, conflict, and looting. Babylon’s fate was no different, as many of its palaces, temples, statues, and other structures were eroded; most of what remains from them are low walls, featureless remains of great budlings, and foundations of gateways –especially, that of the great procession street, that ran through the heart of the city connecting the Ishtar Gate to the temple of city’s main god “Marduk”. What was left standing was stolen by looters, their bricks used as building material for nearby cities including Baghdad, and partly or wholly taken by foreign archaeologists to their home countries’ museums. In particular, the Ishtar Gate, dedicated to the Babylonian goddess Ishtar, built around 575 BC by King Nebuchadnezzar II, lies in Berlin’s Pergamon Museum. If that was not enough, the prior regime during the Iran-Iraq war embarked on the reconstruction of Babylon’s palaces, temples, structures, and followed the habit of Babylonian kings by inscribing the president’s name on many of the new bricks. As icing on the cake, they built an opulent palace styled on the ancient palaces on top of a hill overlooking the ruins of the city. Adding insult to injury was the damage following the invasion of Iraq in 2003, when the ancient site itself was used as a military depot by US and Polish forces in the first two years following the invasion. 

Despite all of that, the remains of Babylon were magnificent to behold, and the feeling of walking among the wonderous ruins is awesome, despite the many times I have been there. Thomas notes: “I really enjoyed walking through the remains of Babylon despite the immense heat, and in my head was Boney M.’s famous song ‘Rivers of Babylon’, which I fancied so much when I was a teenager. Now I was finally there – but we were only able to see the Euphrates river when climbing up a hill. I hope that UNESCO or the Iraqi Government will continue to protect this historical place and continue with the extraction since there must be much more of these ancient buildings in the surroundings.”

 

Babylon

Babylon

(Source: AFC Research)

 

The final part of the day’s tour was a visit to “Taq Kasra”, the only surviving structure of the ancient city of “Ctesiphon”, once the capital of the Parthian and Sassanid empires from the second century BC to the seventh century AD. Taq Kasra, or the Arch of Ctesiphon, is the pre-modern world’s largest single-spanning brick vault, which makes it not only historically and culturally significant, but also significant in the history of structural engineering. However, years of neglect, especially following the 2003 invasion, have led to partial collapses of the brick vault in 2019 and 2020; while its structures were cracked from the passage of time and from the effect of the elements. Fortunately, in 2020, a great conservation project began, led by the University of Pennsylvania and the Consultancy for Conservation and Development.

Taq Kasra was closed to the public due to the conservation project, but fortunately, the closeness of the fence surrounding it allowed us to get very close to it and marvel at its beauty. While it was disappointing not be able to walk underneath the arch as I had done before, I was very glad to see the visible effects of the conservation project and admire the scaffolding installed in late 2021 –later on, I learned that it was designed specifically for the arch, purpose built and came with sensors to monitor cracks. Thomas notes: “I again hope that the Iraqi Government will continue to protect ancient structures like “Taq Kasra” and hopefully will restore and reopen the supporting infrastructure for visitors, which seemed to be in place some time ago.

 

Taq Kasra

Taq Kasra

(Source: AFC Research)

 

At the end of July 2025, the AFC Iraq Fund was invested in 8 names and had a cash level of 4.5%. The fund invests in both local and foreign-listed companies that have the majority of their business activities in Iraq. The markets with the largest asset allocation were Iraq (93.9%), Norway (1.4%), and the U.K. (0.2%).

The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (67.8%) and communications (18.3%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 6.69x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 2.07x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 7.42%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.05 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Asia Frontier Fund Performance

 

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund (AAFF) USD A-shares returned +2.4% in July 2025 with an all-time high NAV of USD 2,040.32. The MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index returned +14.0%, while the MSCI Frontier Markets Net Total Return USD Index went up by +6.8%, and the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index increased +1.3%. Year to date, the fund has delivered a +6.7% return. The performance of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund A-shares since inception on 30th March 2012 now stands at +104.0% versus a positive performance of 0.4% for the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index during the same period, showing an outperformance of +103.6% since inception. The fund’s annualised performance since inception is +5.5%. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio has resulted in lower risk with an annualised volatility of 10.3% and a correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index of 0.49, all based on monthly observations since inception.

It was a powerful month for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund’s key markets, with Bangladesh leading returns in our universe and also for the fund. It was an all-round positive month with returns being led by Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Iraq, and Uzbekistan. 

The ongoing rally in the past three months across our universe does not surprise us as we anticipated investor sentiment in our universe to improve in the second half of 2025 on the back of a pickup in economic momentum and attractive valuations.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index staged a robust rally of +12.5% as macroeconomic indicators in Bangladesh continue to improve, with the current account reporting a surplus for the latest financial year, led by a strong recovery in worker remittances, while inflation numbers are beginning to decrease. With these improving signs and with parliamentary elections expected to be held in February 2026, investor sentiment on the ground is improving.

Valuations in Bangladesh are very attractive, with the market being an underperformer in the last three years. As economic indicators and growth incrementally improve in the upcoming quarters, we expect the re-rating in Bangladesh to continue.

 

We Expect the Ongoing Re-Rating in Bangladesh to Continue as Positive Catalysts are in Place

We Expect the Ongoing Re-Rating in Bangladesh to Continue as Positive Catalysts are in Place

(Source: Bloomberg, LHS = Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index in maroon, RHS = MSCI Bangladesh Index - P/E Ratio in blue)

 

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund made its first investment in Oman this month. The fund invested in Bank Muscat to gain exposure to the broader economic recovery that is taking place in Oman, as the country has made excellent progress in reducing its budget deficit and debt levels and is now able to focus on sustainable growth. Bank Muscat is leveraged to Oman’s economy as it is the largest bank by assets and market capitalisation and trades at an attractive valuation with a P/B ratio of 1.1x and offers a dividend yield of 5.6%.

The best-performing indexes in the AAFF universe in July were Bangladesh (+12.5%) and Laos (+11.5%). The poorest-performing markets were Cambodia (-0.7%) and Mongolia (+0.0%). The top-performing portfolio stocks this month were a copper miner in Mongolia (+85.7%), a technology company operating in Asian frontier countries (+52.4%), a Bangladeshi bank (+39.4%), a Pakistani software outsourcing company (+28.0%), and a gold miner in Papua New Guinea (25.0%).

In July, the fund purchased a bank in Oman and added to existing positions in Bangladesh, Mongolia and Sri Lanka.

At the end of July 2025, the portfolio was invested in 56 companies, 2 funds, and held 4.2% in cash. The two biggest stock positions were a cement producer in Pakistan (4.0%) and a bank in Kazakhstan (3.9%). The countries with the largest asset allocation were Pakistan (16.6%), Sri Lanka (13.8%), and Iraq (10.5%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (35.6%) and consumer goods (20.7%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 6.68x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.31x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.68%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.20 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Uzbekistan Fund - Manager Comment

AFC Uzbekistan Fund Performance

 

The AFC Uzbekistan Fund Class F shares returned +1.3% in July 2025 with a NAV of USD 1,281.21, bringing the year-to-date return to +2.0% and the return since inception (29th March 2019) to +28.1%.

In July, Uzbekistan experienced its traditional “chilla” (40 days of extreme heat), with Tashkent temperatures regularly exceeding 42 degrees Celsius. With school holidays and the heat driving people to the countryside for a cool and relaxing summer, news flow related to the capital markets was slow, save for one significant development boosting our confidence in the government’s privatisation program.

For those who have visited Uzbekistan with us, you may have met Mr. Karen Srapionov, the former Managing Director of the investment bank and brokerage Avesta, which is one of our brokerage partners in Uzbekistan. Avesta is the most active broker with foreign clients in the country and serves as the local partner of New York’s Auerbach Grayson, a global frontier and emerging markets institutional brokerage firm. Having known Karen since 2018, we can confidently say that his transparency and determination to address issues in Uzbekistan’s capital markets make him the most knowledgeable individual in the country regarding these matters. He has acted as an unofficial advisor to several capital markets government agencies over the years, often working late into the night for free. He currently holds an independent board member position at the Tashkent Stock Exchange. One issue we have discussed frequently is his limited power to enact change in the ecosystem, although he has influenced significant improvements over the years. However, this situation appears set to change!

On 21st July 2025, Karen was appointed Director of Investments for Franklin Templeton Asset Management Uzbekistan. He is now responsible for leading Franklin Templeton’s management of the National Investment Fund (UzNIF), a USD 1.7 billion state-owned investment vehicle that holds the government’s equity stakes in 18 state-owned enterprises (SOEs), covering the gamut from infrastructure assets to financial services. The UzNIF is expected to pursue a dual listing on the Tashkent Stock Exchange and a major international stock exchange, with the London Stock Exchange (LSE) being the most likely choice, in the first half of 2026, assuming everything progresses on schedule.

Why is this development so significant? There are numerous issues involving local custody by private custodians, share fungibility for dual listings, challenges in opening brokerage accounts for foreign investors, and integration with Clearstream’s platform, among others. Many of these issues have been largely stalled at the Tashkent Stock Exchange and various regulatory bodies, which has prevented increased liquidity from entering the market and hindered the success of the government's privatization program. While Karen’s role is not to resolve these issues outright, working with Franklin Templeton places him in a significantly better position to collaborate with various government bodies to help address these bottlenecks. Of course, the government wants to avoid an embarrassing first IPO failure of an SOE on an international exchange, so they should be motivated to make these changes. Karen is uniquely qualified to identify the necessary steps to enhance the odds of success.

There is much happening behind the scenes in Tashkent regarding the privatization process, and we look forward to sharing more about the UzNIF and other companies on the agenda as they progress. We believe that Karen’s new role strengthens our confidence in the development of Uzbekistan’s capital markets, and we wish him great success.

Back to Avesta quickly, for anyone concerned that the driving force behind Avesta, Karen, has left the company, we are unphased, for his replacement is Shodlik Nazarov. Shodlik has been Senior Analyst at Avesta since 2019 and has now stepped into a management role. He along with his team and the owner of the company give us continued comfort that the brokerage company will operate smoothly.

Regarding Avesta, for those concerned about Karen’s departure, we remain assured as his replacement is Shodlik Nazarov. Shodlik has been a Senior Analyst at Avesta since 2019 and has now assumed a management role. Together with his team and the owner of the company, we are confident that Avesta will continue to operate smoothly.

At the end of July 2025, the fund was invested in 23 names and held 14.4% in cash. The portfolio was allocated to Uzbekistan (85.5%) and Kyrgyzstan (0.1%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (46.7%) and materials (19.2%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 3.60x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 0.61x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 1.71%.

 
 
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