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South Asian and Central Asian Frontier Markets Well Positioned to Navigate Uncertain U.S. Trade Policy - March 2025 Update

South Asian and Central Asian Frontier Markets Well Positioned to Navigate Uncertain U.S. Trade Policy - March 2025 Update
 

 

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“The art of being wise is knowing what to overlook.”

– William James - American philosopher and psychologist

 

 
 
 
 NAV1Performance3
 (USD)March
2025
Year to DateSince
Inception
AFC Asia Frontier Fund USD A1,899.01-0.9%-0.7%+89.9%

MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index2

 +2.3%+3.9%-17.9%
AFC Iraq Fund USD D2,053.89+0.3%+0.1%+105.4%
Rabee Securities US Dollar Equity Index +1.6%+0.2%+50.3%
AFC Uzbekistan Fund USD F1,225.03-0.9%-2.5%+22.5%

Tashkent Stock Exchange Index (in USD)

 +0.2%-0.3%-31.0%
AFC Vietnam Fund USD C3,378.74-3.6%-2.6%+237.9%
Ho Chi Minh City VN Index (in USD) +0.1%+2.9%+112.1%
 
 
  1. The NAV given is for the lead share series for the relevant master fund. Investors’ holdings may be in a different share class, series, or currency and have a different NAV. See the factsheets and your statement for full details.
  2. Between 31st May 2017 and 30th November 2021 the benchmark was adjusted to be 37% of the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index “MSCI Index” and 63% of the Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index in USD due to the removal of Pakistan from the MSCI Index during this period.
  3. NAV and performance figures are all net of fees.
 
 

 

 

U.S. Tariffs

Since the U.S. reciprocal tariffs are all over the daily news, we would like to focus our attention in this newsletter on the possible impact on our fund universe. Furthermore, given the pace at which the news flow on the reciprocal tariffs is taking place, there could be significant changes to this outlook by the time our newsletter arrives in your inbox.

 

U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs for Asian Frontier Markets as of 8th April 2025

U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs for Asian Frontier Markets as of 8th April 2025

(Source: U.S. Government)

 

Below are our thoughts on the impact of the reciprocal tariffs on our markets: 

  1. Many Asian frontier countries, especially those in South Asia and Central Asia, are not very dependent on overall exports for their economic growth. Economic growth in South Asia and Central Asia is being led more by domestic factors rather than by exports.
     
  2. More importantly and critically, most Asian frontier economies have an extremely low exposure to exports to the U.S. Therefore, though some countries in our universe have received a higher-than-normal reciprocal tariff, their overall exposure to U.S. exports is minimal and thus should not be a game changer for their overall economic prospects.
     
  3. Though some countries in our universe like Vietnam and Cambodia are very dependent on both exports and exports to the U.S. and have received a higher-than-expected reciprocal tariff, it would be too early to conclude that the 46% reciprocal tariff for Vietnam will be a permanent feature as Vietnam is in the process of trying to secure trade talks with the U.S. in an attempt to reduce this reciprocal tariff. Hence, the overall economic impact on Vietnam can be gauged once there are more finalised details on these reciprocal tariffs.
 

South Asian and Central Asian Frontier Economies are Not Very Dependent on Exports 
(Exports as % of GDP in 2024)

South Asian and Central Asian Frontier Economies are Not Very Dependent on Exports  (Exports as % of GDP in 2024)

(Source: International Monetary Fund, AFC Research)

 

Most Asian Frontier Economies are Hardly Dependent on Exports to the U.S. 
(Exports to the U.S. as % of GDP in 2024)

Most Asian Frontier Economies are Hardly Dependent on Exports to the U.S.  (Exports to the U.S. as % of GDP in 2024)

(Source: Bloomberg, AFC Research)

 

The key takeaway for us from this announcement is that South Asian and Central Asian frontier markets like Bangladesh, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Uzbekistan are relatively better positioned in this environment of uncertainty over U.S. trade and tariff policy. Furthermore, countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are also in the midst of a domestic-led economic recovery after the tough times they faced in 2022/2023 and this domestic economic recovery in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka is not highly correlated to U.S. trade policy.

Iraq has zero direct exposure to tariffs, as almost all of its exports to the U.S. are oil, which is exempt from tariffs for the moment; however, the impact will be indirect and felt through a lower oil price as a consequence of expected lower global demand for oil. This is offset by the country’s strong financial position, and by the secular transformation of its economy after decades of conflict.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund offers true diversification to investors because of its allocation to regions that are less exposed to U.S. trade policies. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund has a combined exposure of 63% to South Asian and Central Asian frontier markets (as of the end of March 2025) and, therefore, is in a relatively stronger position to navigate an era of uncertain and volatile U.S. trade policies.

In the past five years we have witnessed various economic shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. However, AFC Funds have delivered outstanding returns over the last five years, during which there has been a large amount of economic and geopolitical uncertainties. This only goes to show that Asian frontier markets and AFC Funds can absorb volatility and uncertainty and, more importantly, deliver solid results.

 

AFC Funds Have Delivered Solid Annualised Returns in the Last 5 Years Despite Multiple Economic Shocks (in USD)

Most Asian Frontier Economies are Hardly Dependent on Exports to the U.S.  (Exports to the U.S. as % of GDP in 2024)

(Source: Bloomberg, annualized returns in USD between March 2020 – March 2025)

 

AFC Asia Frontier Fund Wins at the AsianInvestor Asset Management Awards 2025 as we Celebrate its 13th Birthday

Most Asian Frontier Economies are Hardly Dependent on Exports to the U.S.  (Exports to the U.S. as % of GDP in 2024)

 

 

We are thrilled to share that the AFC Asia Frontier Fund has been honoured at the 2025 AsianInvestor Asset Management Awards in the category Emerging Market Equity. In addition, the AFC Asia Frontier Fund received a Highly Commended recognition in the Asia Ex-Japan Equity category.

This award and the commendation are a testament to the quality of the fund’s management team, which is focused on offering outstanding returns by investing in the frontier markets in Asia along with true diversification benefits. We have always believed that our strategy is the key to delivering consistent performance, and this recognition from AsianInvestor reinforces that belief.

 

AFC Asia Frontier Fund and AFC Uzbekistan Fund Anniversaries

Both our AFC Asia Frontier Fund and AFC Uzbekistan Fund mark a significant milestone this month, celebrating their 13th and 6th years of innovative investment strategies in some of the world's most dynamic frontier markets.

With a reach encompassing some 15 frontier countries currently, the AFC Asia Frontier Fund has established itself as a trailblazer, seeking out unique investment opportunities and long-term trends that diverge from traditional investment pathways. This approach has not only distinguished us within the frontier market space but also underpinned our sustained expertise over the years in these markets.

As we continue to embrace this contrarian perspective, we are committed to unlocking value over the medium and long term and generating substantial returns for our investors. Further details on these funds are available later in this newsletter.

 

AFC Uzbekistan Fund Investor Day 2025

AFC will host next month its 4th AFC Uzbekistan tour, bringing existing and prospective investors to experience the reality of Uzbekistan from the ground. We have revised the tour concept and will be hosting a day tour on 27th May 2025. This will include a half-day tour of Tashkent, a visit to one of the fund’s portfolio companies, followed by dinner. If you are interested in attending, please write to us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. to express your interest, and we will follow up with you.

 

April 2025 Subscription Cut-Off Date

The next cut-off date for subscriptions for our funds will be 24th April 2025. If you would like to know more about the subscription process, please get in touch with us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Please find below the managers’ comments on each of our four funds for March 2025.

 
 
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Upcoming AFC Travel

Thomas Hugger, Ruchir Desai, and Peter de Vries are based in Hong Kong, while Andreas Vogelsanger is based in Bangkok, Vicente Nguyen in Ho Chi Minh City, Scott Osheroff in Tashkent, and Ahmed Tabaqchali in London and Iraq. If you have an interest in meeting with our team at their homeports or during their travels, please contact Peter de Vries at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

AFC Travel

Amman, Jordan Until 15th May Ahmed Tabaqchali
Hong Kong 11th - 16th May Andreas Vogelsanger
Baghdad, Iraq 15th  May - 10th June Ahmed Tabaqchali
London, UK 19th  - 21st May Andreas Vogelsanger
Tashkent, Uzbekistan 25th - 27th May Thomas Hugger
Tashkent, Uzbekistan 25th - 28th May Ruchir Desai
Dubai 29th - 30th May Ruchir Desai
Baghdad, Iraq 29th  May - 2nd June Thomas Hugger
Hong Kong 1st - 13th June Andreas Vogelsanger
Colombo, Sri Lanka 2nd - 6th June Ruchir Desai
London, UK 23rd June - 10th July Ahmed Tabaqchali
 
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AFC Iraq Fund Performance

 

The AFC Iraq Fund Class D shares returned +0.3% in March 2025 with a NAV of USD 2,053.89, underperforming its benchmark, the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index (RSISUSD index), which gained 1.6% during the month. The fund gained 43.5% in 2024 on the back of a stellar performance in 2023 of +110.4%. The fund is up by 0.1% for the year versus up by 0.2% for the index. Since inception, the fund has gained 105.4% while the RSISUSD index is up by 50.3%, an outperformance of 55.1%. The annualized return since inception of the fund stands at +7.7% p.a.

The RSISX USD Index continued with the process of consolidating its gains that started in December 2024, following a blistering 35.9% rally since late August 2024, and just as in the past two months, spent the month in a tight range of -2.3% and +1.8% around its prior month’s close. While this consolidation could continue over the next few weeks, the market’s technical picture continues to be positive, and the likely consolidation or pullback should be within its multi-month uptrend (chart below). Nevertheless, the process could extend towards the lower band of the uptrend due to the uncertainty over the health of the global economy following the unveiling of the U.S.’s radical tariffs on its trading partners. The tariff’s direct impact on Iraq is almost zero, since oil constitutes almost all of its exports to the U.S., which are exempt from reciprocal tariffs. However, the impact will be indirect and felt through a lower oil price as a consequence of expected lower global demand for oil.

 

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

(Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, daily data as of 27th March 2025. Note: daily turnover adjusted for block trades1)

 

This lower global demand for oil was compounded by supply increases as a result of the unexpected OPEC+ announcement in the wake of the U.S.’s unveiling of tariffs that the group will triple its planned production increase in May. The actual increase will in fact be much less as a function of over-production by some group members, and the tripling of production, so far, is planned only for May. Nevertheless, the clear implication is that the group’s planned unwinding of prior production cuts will proceed even in the face of the expected weaker demand for oil –versus the market’s prior expectations that OPEC+ will delay the unwinding of production cuts when demand is weak. This might seem illogical at first sight, but it will soften the tariffs and potential counter tariffs blow to the world economy, make up for the potential loss of Iranian oil from the U.S.’s tough measures, and help in stimulating the eventual global recovery. However, it is negative for medium-term oil prices which, as measured by Brent crude futures contracts as of 4th April 2025, have shifted (orange line, chart below) to the lower end of a three-year range –marked on the upper end by those of supply fears following the invasion of Ukraine (red line, chart below), and on the lower end by those following the emergence from COVID-19 at the end of 2021 (grey line, chart below).

 

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices
As measured by Brent Futures Contacts (USD per barrel)

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices As measured by Brent Futures Contacts (USD per barrel)

(Source: Wall Street Journal (WSJ), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), AFC Research, data as of 28th March 2025)

 

This decline in expectations for future oil prices (orange line, chart above) has negative implications for Iraq’s oil export revenues which in 2025 could translate to IQD 17.3 tn (USD 13.3 bn) or 16% lower oil revenues than in 2024.2 Notwithstanding this, it was asserted here in “Market Review for 2021 and Outlook for 2022” when expectations for future oil prices at the time were at the lower of this range (grey line, chart above) that they were positive for the country’s financial position in that they provide the government with the wherewithal to continue with expansionary economic policies. While prices at the upper end of the range allow for the accumulations of budget surpluses, and at the lower end require the issuance of domestic debt to fund budget deficits, the overarching theme was, and remains, that over the next few years, the trend is for decreasing oil prices. Thus, as reasoned in “What Next after Two Gangbuster Years”, this implies increased debt issuance to augment government spending that will play a big role in developing the country’s bond market which, in turn, with the growth of the equity market will contribute to the evolution of the country’s capital markets.

The government is yet to submit the updated budget tables for 2025 as part of the expansionary three-year 2023-25 budget. However, the projections should be for slightly increased expenditures and decreased revenues in 2025 over 2024 in line with the changes of 2024 over 2023; and as such would lead to a deficit of Iraqi dinar (IQD) 65.0-67.0 tn (USD 50.0-51.5 bn, based on the official exchange rate of USD = IQD 1,300). However, in practice, there is a world of difference between budget projections and actual budget executions, mostly due to the historically low execution rates of investment spending and the plodding pace of the Iraqi bureaucratic machine. In both 2023 and 2024, the budget called for a deficit of around IQD 64.0 tn (USD 49.3 bn). However, the actual budget execution was vastly different. Actual deficits were significantly lower than projected and were financed by the cash balances at the Ministry of Finance’s (MoF) account at the Central of Iraq (table below).

 

Actual Budget Data 2022-2024

Actual Budget Data 2022-2024

(Source: Ministry of Finance)

 

Accordingly, estimating actual budget execution for 2025 can be made by using current market projections for oil prices, and assuming actual expenditures would be 10% higher than those for 2024, which implies a budget deficit of IQD 35.8 tn (USD 28.0 bn). This would be easily financed through the issuance of domestic debt, increasing domestic sovereign debt from IQD 83.1 tn (USD 63.9 bn) at the end 2024 up to IQD 118.9 tn (USD 91.5 bn) by the end of 2025 –a better outlook than initially estimated a few months ago, primarily due to better than expected budget performance in 2024. 

The 2025 budget, like that of 2023 and 2024, should continue to support the two key dynamics driving the transformation of the Iraqi economy and subsequently the equity market. The first is the cumulative positive effects of the relative stability that the country has enjoyed over the past few years, which created a stable and predictable macroeconomic framework for businesses and individuals to operate in and to plan for capital investments on a scale last seen in the 1970’s and early 1980’s before the onset of the decades of conflict. The second is the significant structural fundamental development accelerating the adoption of banking and bringing about a transformation of the sector and its role in the economy.

We continue to believe that the upside opportunity for the AFC Iraq Fund will come about as the RSISX USD Index, having surpassed its 2014 peak by 7.1% by the end of March 2025, rallies further, reflecting the powerful dynamics discussed here over the last few months. However, risks remain given Iraq’s recent history of conflict, extreme leverage to volatile oil prices, as well as the risk that a widening of the current Middle East conflict will not be contained and evolve to destabilise the region.

At the end of March 2025, the AFC Iraq Fund was invested in 8 names and had a cash level of 7.7%. The fund invests in both local and foreign-listed companies that have the majority of their business activities in Iraq. The markets with the largest asset allocation were Iraq (90.9%), Norway (1.3%), and the U.K. (0.1%).

The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (71.6%) and communications (10.8%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 6.62x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.27x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.55%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.07 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Asia Frontier Fund Performance

 

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund (AAFF) USD A-shares returned −0.9% in March 2025 with a NAV of USD 1,899.01. The fund underperformed the benchmark MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index (+2.3%) and the MSCI Frontier Markets Net Total Return USD Index (+2.9%) and outperformed the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index (−4.5%). In 2025, the fund shows a −0.7% return, underperforming the benchmark, which went up by 3.9%. The performance of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund A-shares since inception on 30th March 2012 now stands at +89.9% versus the benchmark, which is down by 17.9% during the same period, showing an outperformance of +107.8% since inception. The fund’s annualized performance since inception is +5.1%. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio has resulted in lower risk with an annualised volatility of 10.4% and a correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index of 0.48, all based on monthly observations since inception.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund reported a stable first quarter of the year as our markets took a breather after their prolific run in 2024. More importantly, a stable quarter for the fund contrasts with the large correction we have witnessed in the U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index down by -4.6% and -10.4%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2025.

This relative outperformance by the AFC Asia Frontier Fund after two powerful years reflects not only the diversification benefits that our fund offers but also shows the significantly attractive valuations in our markets despite the fund recently reaching a new all-time high NAV.

 

AFC Asia Frontier Fund P/E Ratio at All-Time Low Despite the Fund’s NAV at All-Time High – A Reflection of Value in a Volatile Global Environment

AFC Asia Frontier Fund P/E Ratio at All-Time Low Despite the Fund’s NAV at All-Time High – A Reflection of Value in a Volatile Global Environment

(Source: AFC Research)

 

The key drivers of performance in March 2025 were Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Papua New Guinea, and Iraq, while the main detractors to performance were Vietnam, Mongolia, Sri Lanka, and Uzbekistan.

In last month’s newsletter, we discussed how the potential for a possible compromise in Ukraine is positively impacting the stock prices of the fund’s two Georgian bank holdings as sentiment in the region received a boost from these geopolitical developments. In March, the fund’s largest stock position, Halyk Bank from Kazakhstan, also joined the rally on the back of positive sentiment surrounding geopolitical tailwinds in the region.

More importantly, Halyk Bank’s stock price was also lifted by its robust 4Q24 results, and its net profits grew by 84%. Even though Halyk Bank’s stock price has seen a large rally in the last few years, it still trades very attractively at an estimated 2025 P/E ratio of 3.6x while offering a dividend yield of 14.2% in USD!

This is another example of the kind of value available in our Asian frontier universe despite the robust rally in many of our stock holdings, and this is a differentiating factor with other global stock markets, which have rallied but also trade at significantly higher valuations.

 

Halyk Bank: Trading at 3.6x 2025 P/E and 14.2% Dividend Yield in USD

Halyk Bank is Another Central Asian Name in the AFC Asia Frontier Fund’s Portfolio which has Re-Rated Higher – Very Good Results and Geopolitical Tailwinds are the Key Catalysts

(Source: Bloomberg, % change in USD price between 31st December 2024 – 1st April 2025)

 

Sri Lanka’s successful economic momentum has gathered pace, with GDP growth in 4Q24 coming in ahead of expectations at 5.4%, and full-year 2024 GDP growth also well ahead of all estimates at +5.0%. There has been all round economic strength in Sri Lanka with growth led by domestic consumption, manufacturing, construction activities, and robust tourist arrivals.

 

Sri Lanka’s Economy is Gaining Momentum as GDP Growth in 2024 has Beaten Expectations

Sri Lanka’s Economy is Gaining Momentum as GDP Growth in 2024 has Beaten Expectations

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

Tourist arrivals in 1Q25 were back to pre-crisis levels, and more importantly, the attraction of Sri Lanka as a tourism destination has led to a big recovery in tourism earnings, which has helped support the build-up in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Sri Lanka remains one of our top country picks with a 3–5-year view as all the positive catalysts are in place in the form of (1) political stability, (2) a strengthened economy, (3) reform momentum, and (4) very attractive valuations.

 

The Very Impressive Rebound in Sri Lanka’s Tourism Sector is a Big Positive for the Economy

The Very Impressive Rebound in Sri Lanka’s Tourism Sector is a Big Positive for the Economy

(Source: CT CLSA Securities)

 

Bangladesh is also showing signs of economic stability after the macro and political issues it has faced in the past year. Monthly exports remain stable which is a good sign since the garment sector is the largest export contributor and generates a large amount of employment. AFC was in Dhaka in February 2025 and we will be releasing our "AFC on the Road" report on Bangladesh in the next few weeks, so do watch out for that.

 

Bangladesh Monthly Exports Have Been Stable Despite the Political Events of August 2024 
(in USD bn)

Bangladesh Monthly Exports Have Been Stable Despite the Political Events of August 2024  (in USD bn)

(Source: Bangladesh Export Promotion Bureau)

 

The best-performing indexes in the AAFF universe in March were Pakistan (+4.3%) and Iraq (+1.6%). The poorest-performing markets were Mongolia (−4.3%) and Sri Lanka (−4.0%). The top-performing portfolio stocks this month were a Mongolian concrete producer (+31.7%), a gold miner from Papua New Guinea (+29.3%), a Kazakh bank (+22.6%), a technology company with a focus on Asian frontier markets (+15.6%), and a Pakistani power equipment and consumer appliance producer (+14.4%).

In March, the fund exited a Mongolian coking coal miner and also added and reduced existing positions in Mongolia.

At the end of March 2025, the portfolio was invested in 57 companies, 2 funds, and held 5.0% in cash. The two biggest stock positions were a bank in Kazakhstan (4.2%) and a cement producer in Pakistan (3.6%). The countries with the largest asset allocation were Pakistan (18.9%), Sri Lanka (12.3%), and Iraq (9.8%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (32.3%) and consumer goods (20.9%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 6.25x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.19x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.75%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.52 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Uzbekistan Fund - Manager Comment

AFC Uzbekistan Fund Performance

 

The AFC Uzbekistan Fund Class F shares returned −0.9% in March 2025 with a NAV of USD 1,225.03, bringing the return since inception (29th March 2019) to +22.5%.

On 29th March 2025, we celebrated the sixth anniversary of the AFC Uzbekistan Fund. Over these years, Uzbekistan has experienced substantial development both on a local and geopolitical level, becoming arguably the most influential country in Central Asia, and attracting significant investments and interest from the Middle East, Russia, China, and the West.

With the U.S. implementing a minimum 10% import duty across the board, the minimum 10% tariff will apply to Uzbekistan's exports. This is due to insignificant trade between the two countries, with Uzbekistan's exports to the U.S. accounting for a mere 1.18%, or USD 318 mn, of its total 2024 exports of USD 26.9 bn.

America's new tariff regime will therefore have an insignificant impact on Uzbekistan, especially as a large component of this trade is agricultural products that can easily find new buyers in greater Central Asia, Turkey, and Europe if local companies were to cease exporting to the U.S.

Over the past several years, it has become abundantly clear that Central Asia is a new geopolitical battleground for influence as the region connects “East and West” while being significantly influenced by Russia and China. One only needs to look at the “hermit” country of Turkmenistan, which is looking to enter the global geopolitical arena in recent months, leveraging its geographic importance from a logistical standpoint, as well as through its vast energy reserves, specifically natural gas.

While the region, including Uzbekistan, is developing nicely, the fund is continuously building positions in top-tier listed companies that are best-positioned to benefit from Uzbekistan’s economic growth. Although the economy is currently experiencing a temporary slowdown after rapid growth since opening up in 2016, with non-performing loans rising to 4.5% in February 2025 and a deceleration in luxury housing construction (while economic housing construction continues to advance), our core financial services holdings continue to thrive.

In March 2025, the Uzbek Commodity Exchange (TSE: URTS) reported its full-year 2024 results, with earnings per share soaring by 39.4% to UZS 852.91, up from UZS 611.56 in 2023. URTS's EPS in 2024 represents a staggering increase of 1,115% since we began acquiring shares through the AFC Asia Frontier Fund in 2018. Additionally, its 2024 book value increased by 31.13%, rising to UZS 1,160.17 from UZS 883.20 in 2023. As of 31st March 2025, URTS trades at a P/E ratio of 3.74x, a price-to-book ratio of 2.74x, and boasts a dividend yield of 12%.

URTS exemplifies the potential of Uzbek companies and is arguably the best-managed publicly traded company in the country. Nevertheless, its share price performance may deter some speculators, as the company's shares have been in a downtrend since 2021. Meanwhile, earnings continue to grow at double digits, maintaining dividend yields in the teens. Considering that this is a monopoly business, the significant undervaluation highlights the potential for a strong re-rating of blue-chip stocks once the stock exchange operates more efficiently and attracts more foreign capital. Patience will be crucial during this correction phase, as the market must evolve sufficiently to unlock value across these companies while the underlying businesses thrive amidst Uzbekistan's growing economy.

 

Uzbek Commodity Exchange Share Price from 2019 to Date

Uzbek Commodity Exchange Share Price from 2019 to Date

(Source: AFC Research, Uzse.uz)

 

AFC Uzbekistan Fund Investor Day 2025

We are excited to announce our 4th AFC Uzbekistan Investor Tour, designed to bring existing and prospective investors to experience Uzbekistan firsthand. We will host a day tour on 27th May 2025, which will include a half-day tour of Tashkent, a visit to one of the fund’s portfolio companies, followed by a dinner. If you are interested in attending, please email us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. to express your interest, and we will follow up with you.

At the end of March 2025, the fund was invested in 23 names and held 8.4% cash. The portfolio was allocated to Uzbekistan (91.5%) and Kyrgyzstan (0.1%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (42.0%) and materials (24.4%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 3.86x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 0.62x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 2.65%.

 
 
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AFC Vietnam Fund - Manager Comment

AFC Vietnam Fund Performance

 

The AFC Vietnam Fund returned −3.6% in March with a NAV of USD 3,378.74, bringing the 2025 return to −2.6% and return since inception to +237.9%. This month, the fund underperformed the benchmark, the Ho Chi Minh City VN Index, which gained 0.1% in USD terms. The fund’s annualised return since inception stands at +11.4% p.a. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio resulted in an annualised volatility of 14.55%, a Sharpe ratio of 0.66, and a low correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Index USD of 0.50, all based on monthly observations since inception.

President Trump's "Tariff Shocker"

The sweeping 46% tariff on Vietnamese imports was significantly higher than the widely expected tariff of around 10%. This dramatic escalation continues the “America First” trade doctrine and targets countries with large trade surpluses with the U.S. Vietnam, with its rapidly growing export volume, found itself squarely in the crosshairs. The market reaction was swift and severe, with the VN Index falling approximately 8.3% in USD terms month-to-date .

The scale of the tariff came as a significant surprise to us. In response, we took immediate action to mitigate risk in the AFC Vietnam Fund by substantially increasing our cash position. This move enhances our ability to respond to rapidly changing political and market dynamics. While the initial shock was considerable, early signs of diplomatic engagement suggest that a constructive resolution remains possible. We are closely monitoring the evolving situation and its potential impact on Vietnam’s economic outlook and equity market.

 

Trump’s Announced Tariffs

Trump’s Announced Tariffs

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

Economic Pressure, Vietnam’s Response, and Geopolitical Dynamics

Vietnam has emerged as a key manufacturing hub and an attractive alternative to China for global supply chains. However, its sizable and growing trade surplus with the U.S.—the third-largest globally at USD 123.5 bn in 2024—has drawn scrutiny. According to estimates, approximately USD 63 bn of Vietnamese exports could be subject to the new tariffs. Vietnamese officials acted quickly, dispatching a high-level delegation to Washington as part of ongoing commemorations of 30 years of diplomatic ties.

Economic pressures are also building in the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a veteran of global macro investing, is acutely aware of the risk that market instability could trigger a broader economic spiral—falling markets, declining consumer spending, shrinking tax revenues, rising deficits, and ultimately, surging interest rates.

In a dramatic development, President Trump revealed that Vietnamese President To Lam offered to eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods entirely in exchange for halting the new duties. "Lam told me that Vietnam wants to cut its tariffs down to ZERO if it can make an agreement with the U.S.," Trump posted on Truth Social following their phone call. This follows Hanoi’s request for a three-month delay to negotiate a mutually acceptable solution. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has since established a task force to respond rapidly, calling the tariffs inconsistent with the strong bilateral relationship.

Vietnam had already begun addressing U.S. concerns, announcing tariff cuts on American products including cars, ethanol, LNG, and various agricultural goods. In March, over USD 4 bn in bilateral deals—mostly in oil and gas—were signed. Vietnam’s strategic position also strengthens its hand; amid rising U.S.-China tensions, Washington may find deepening ties with Hanoi increasingly valuable. Unlike other major trading partners, Vietnam poses no immigration or border-related issues, making it a uniquely clean trade negotiation.

Ultimately, this episode highlights Trump’s willingness to employ tariffs as a blunt instrument of diplomacy. However, it also reveals his administration’s desire to negotiate swiftly when counterparts engage constructively, potentially offering a roadmap for other nations navigating similar pressures.

At the end of March 2025, the fund’s largest positions were: Lam Dong Minerals and Building Materials (8.1%) – a building material supplier, Agriculture Bank Insurance (7.3%) – an insurance company, TNG Investment and Trading JSC (6.3%) – an apparel manufacturer, Dong Hai JSC of Bentre (5.6%) – a packaging manufacturing company, and Minh Phu Seafood Corp (5.5%) – a seafood company.

The portfolio was invested in 38 names and held 6.9% in cash. The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were consumer (37.5%) and financials (27.7%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 10.91x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.31x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.80%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 1.32 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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