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Asian Frontier Macro Intact - Middle East Tensions Provide an Excellent Buying Opportunity - February 2026 Update

 

 

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It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

– Charlie Munger - American businessman, investor, attorney and philanthropist.

 

 
 
 
 NAV1Performance3
 (USD)February
2026
Year to
Date
Since
Inception
AFC Asia Frontier Fund USD A2,428.53−0.2%+6.1%+142.9%

MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index2

 +2.4%+2.4%+24.4%
AFC Iraq Fund USD D2,428.04+1.5%+1.2%+142.8%
Rabee Securities US Dollar Equity Index +1.5%+0.6%+71.4%
AFC Uzbekistan Fund USD F1,867.80+4.0%+23.6%+86.8%

Tashkent Stock Exchange Index (in USD)

 +8.5%+12.3%-5.1%
AFC Vietnam Fund USD C3,803.59+2.7%+7.1%+280.4%
Ho Chi Minh City VN Index (in USD) +2.4%+6.3%+199.4%
 
 
  1. The NAV given is for the lead share series for the relevant master fund. Investors’ holdings may be in a different share class, series, or currency and have a different NAV. See the factsheets and your statement for full details.
  2. Between 31st May 2017 and 30th November 2021 the benchmark was adjusted to be 37% of the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index “MSCI Index” and 63% of the Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index in USD due to the removal of Pakistan from the MSCI Index during this period.
  3. NAV and performance figures are all net of fees.
 

 

 

February 2026 was a good month for AFC Funds overall, with the AFC Uzbekistan Fund once again leading the way with its year-to-date return now standing at an excellent +23.6%. However, the start of March has been overshadowed by events in the Middle East.

With geopolitical tensions flaring in the Middle East, leading to volatility and nervousness in global stock markets, we believe that Asian frontier countries are in a much stronger macroeconomic position compared to February 2022, when the war in Ukraine broke out.

Our country universe now has significantly more robust political and macroeconomic stability in the form of reform-oriented governments and much healthier economic metrics in terms of foreign exchange reserves, current accounts, inflation, and interest rates, which are backed by ongoing domestic economic momentum.

Valuations also remain extremely attractive with our AFC Asia Frontier Fund trading at a P/E ratio of only 7.0x, which is well below its peak of 24.0x in 2016. Furthermore, Asian frontier markets and AFC Funds have withstood and overcome the various challenges the global economy has faced in the last six years, such as the pandemic, war in Ukraine, an aggressive U.S. Fed, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East since October 2023.

Historically, as we have seen in the last six years, any major economic shock has been an excellent buying opportunity as our markets have reacted swiftly to any stock market correction. This is reflected in the performance over the last six years for the AFC Funds which have performed very strongly despite several uncertain and unpredictable events during this period.

To conclude, we have been here before and historically such events have provided an excellent entry point for investors into AFC Funds, as the longer-term performance chart below shows.

 

AFC Funds Have Performed Strongly Despite Uncertain Global Events Since 2020

AFC Funds Six Year Performance

(Source: AFC Research, % total USD net returns over six years upto the end of February 2026)

 

March 2026 Subscription Cut-Off Date

The next cut-off date for subscriptions for our funds will be 25th March 2026. If you would like to know more about the subscription process, please get in touch with us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Please find below the managers’ comments on each of our four funds for February 2026.

 
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AFC Travel

Thomas Hugger, Ruchir Desai, and Peter de Vries are based in Hong Kong, while Andreas Vogelsanger is based in Bangkok, Vicente Nguyen in Ho Chi Minh City, Scott Osheroff in Tashkent, and Ahmed Tabaqchali in London and Iraq. If you have an interest in meeting with our team at their homeports or during their travels, please contact Peter de Vries at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Hong Kong 11th - 13th March Andreas Vogelsanger
London 11th - 23rd March Ahmed Tabaqchali
Hong Kong 22nd March - 3rd April Andreas Vogelsanger
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 23rd - 27th March Ruchir Desai
Amman, Jordan 23rd March - 10th April Ahmed Tabaqchali
Dhaka, Bangladesh 19th - 23rd April Ruchir Desai

 

 
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AFC Uzbekistan Fund - Manager Comment

 

AFC Uzbekistan Fund Performance

 

The AFC Uzbekistan Fund Class F shares returned +4.0% in February 2026 with a NAV of USD 1,867.80, bringing the year-to-date return to +23.6%. The return since inception (29th March 2019) now stands at +86.8%, representing an annualised return of +9.4% p.a.

After a frustrating correction from 2022 to 2024 regarding the performance of the fund, we continue to notice positive changes in the market, further confirming that we are in a new uptrend. Historically, when the fund has benefitted from upside volatility in the market, similar to the 18.82% appreciation in NAV we experienced in January 2026, the strong momentum has faded with local sellers overwhelming buyers and causing a reversal during the month or into subsequent months. The fact that the AFC Uzbekistan Fund is experiencing strength off the back of January 2026 performance is very encouraging to us. Specifically, we have noticed aggressive buying in some of the fund’s holdings, indicating to us that new entrants (whether local or foreign, but likely the latter) continue to allocate capital. These investors don’t fully understand the dynamics of the market and are sitting on the bid, pushing prices higher. Once we get to the IPOs of various state-owned enterprises and therefore more participants in the capital markets ecosystem, we would expect to see many more similar situations, leading to the further re-rating of the Uzbek equity market.

America’s Central Asian strategy increasingly focuses on Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan is focused on increasing foreign direct investments from east and west, and in February, President Mirziyoyev was in Washington D.C. for a handful of deal signings and political initiatives, including attending Donald Trump’s inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace.

Two of the more interesting deals announced during his visit on 18th February 2026 were Uzbekneftegaz, the state-owned oil and gas company, signing a USD 150 million fuel station deal with Gulf Oil (which operates 1,100 petrol stations across the United States) where 100 petrol stations will be built in Uzbekistan through 2028 and thereafter will be expanded to cover aviation fuel at the nation’s airports.

The second notable deal was the agreement to establish a joint investment partnership between the Development Finance Corporation, Ex-Im Bank, and the Uzbek government to finance resource projects in the country. During the meeting, the DFC confirmed a USD 852 million credit line for Uzbekneftegaz compressor station upgrades. As part of this partnership, Traxys plans to invest USD 1 billion into resource projects targeting tungsten, molybdenum, copper, rare earths, etc., as part of the U.S. government’s drive to decrease critical mineral reliance on China. Uzbekistan is resource-rich, and its mineral wealth, aside from its larger copper and gold deposits, has not been properly explored. Many investors think of Kazakhstan when they think of regional resources, but there is no reason Uzbekistan shouldn’t be right up there with them, and in time should be!

AFC Uzbekistan Tour 2026

AFC is planning to host its 5th AFC Uzbekistan Tour, bringing existing and prospective investors to experience the reality of Uzbekistan from the ground. We will be hosting a day tour in late September 2026. This will include a half-day tour of Tashkent, a visit to several of the fund's portfolio companies, followed by dinner. If you are interested in attending, please write us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. to express your interest and we will follow-up with you.

At the end of February 2026, the fund was invested in 23 names and held 11.0% in cash. The portfolio was allocated to Uzbekistan (88.95%) and Kyrgyzstan (0.04%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (62.7%) and materials (14.2%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 5.43x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 0.89x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 2.12%.

 
 
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AFC Vietnam Fund - Manager Comment

AFC Vietnam Fund Performance

 

The AFC Vietnam Fund returned +2.7% in February with a NAV of USD 3,803.59, bringing the 2026 return to +7.1% and the return since inception to +280.4%. This month, the fund outperformed the benchmark, the Ho Chi Minh City VN Index, which gained +2.4% in USD terms. The fund’s annualised return since inception stands at +11.6% p.a. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio resulted in an annualised volatility of 14.61%, a Sharpe ratio of 0.65, and a low correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Index USD of 0.49, all based on monthly observations since inception.

 

VN-Index from December 2024 to 9th March 2026

VN-Index from December 2024 to 9th March 2026

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

The benchmark index was strongly supported by large-cap oil and gas stocks such as GAS, PLX, and BSR, following supportive government policy developments. According to Vietcap, the sector’s rally was largely driven by domestic retail investors reacting to anticipated regulatory changes.

Key catalysts include:

  • The expected issuance of a new petroleum trading decree in February 2026, effective from April 2026, approximately eight months earlier than previously anticipated
  • Structural reforms allowing petroleum distributors greater flexibility in setting retail prices, while enhancing supply stability

These measures form part of Resolution 79, which aims to improve the efficiency and performance of state-owned enterprises, as highlighted in our previous report. While the policy changes are fundamentally positive for the long-term outlook of the oil and gas sector, Vietcap notes that the positive earnings impact will likely materialise gradually.

Nonetheless, investor sentiment toward the sector remains strong, supported by reform momentum and expectations of improved operating dynamics.

U.S. Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Global Tariffs – Positive Implications for Vietnam

The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning the White House’s broad reciprocal tariff policy has led President Donald Trump to introduce a temporary 150-day tariff framework. Under this revised arrangement, tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the U.S. have been reduced from 20% to 15%, a meaningful 5 percentage point cut that significantly eases pressure on Vietnam’s export sector.

This adjustment is particularly favourable for Vietnam. As highlighted by the Financial Times, Vietnam benefits from one of the more substantial reductions in trade-weighted average tariff rates among major U.S. trading partners. The lower duties enhance the price competitiveness of Vietnamese goods in the U.S. market, especially in key export categories such as electronics, textiles, footwear, and machinery.

The tariff reduction not only improves near-term earnings visibility for exporters but also reinforces Vietnam’s position as a strategic manufacturing hub amid ongoing global supply-chain diversification.

 

Vietnam is Among the Winners of the New Tariff Policy

Vietnam is Among the Winners of the New Tariff Policy

(Source: Johannes Fritz, Global Trade Alert)

 

The tariff adjustment helps stabilise bilateral trade flows, supports continued export strength, and reduces near-term downside risks to Vietnam’s growth outlook. Combined with Vietnam’s upgraded Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the EU and the ongoing benefits of the EVFTA, this relief further enhances the country’s ability to diversify export markets and sustain momentum.

The impact is already visible. According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, exports to the U.S. surged 30% year-on-year in January 2026 to USD 13.9 bn, underscoring resilient demand and strong competitiveness. Among ASEAN peers, Vietnam remains a clear beneficiary of the evolving global trade landscape.

Overall, the 15% tariff rate provides meaningful breathing space, reinforcing Vietnam’s position as a resilient, adaptable, and increasingly strategic export hub amid persistent global trade uncertainty.

Vietnam’s State Budget Surplus – A Structural Fiscal Breakthrough

Vietnam has achieved a historic fiscal milestone, recording budget surpluses in 2024 and 2025, with the positive momentum continuing into January 2026. The state budget posted a surplus of VND 206.7 trn in 2024, rising further to approximately VND 249 trn in 2025. In January 2026 alone, the surplus reached approximately VND 207 trn (USD 7.9 bn).

This marks a significant structural turnaround after decades of persistent fiscal deficits, reflecting stronger revenue collection, disciplined public spending, and improved fiscal governance. The sustained surplus enhances Vietnam’s macroeconomic stability, strengthens sovereign credit fundamentals, and provides greater flexibility to support public investment and long-term growth initiatives.

For investors, this fiscal improvement reinforces Vietnam’s resilience and policy credibility, further underpinning confidence in the country’s medium- to long-term economic trajectory.

 

Vietnam’s State Budget Balance (USD bn)

Vietnam’s State Budget Balance (USD bn)

(Source: General Statistic Office)

 

Fiscal Discipline and Revenue Breakthrough Under Strong Leadership

Vietnam’s historic budget surpluses in 2024–2025 and early 2026 reflect not only strong economic growth but also a decisive shift in fiscal governance under the leadership of General Secretary To Lam. His administration has emphasised discipline, efficiency, and enforcement, resulting in a structural improvement in the state budget balance.

Two key drivers stand out:

1. Effective Expenditure Rationalisation

Regular expenditures have been tightened through stricter controls on administrative spending, including limits on conferences, official travel, vehicle procurement, and other non-essential costs. At the same time, the anti-corruption campaign has intensified, targeting misuse of public funds and reinforcing accountability across government agencies.

This stronger fiscal discipline has significantly improved budget utilisation efficiency and reduced leakages that historically weighed on public finances.

2. Revenue Enhancement Through Stronger Enforcement

While Vietnam’s exceptional 8.02% GDP growth in 2025, record exports (approximately USD 480–500 bn), and robust FDI disbursement naturally expanded the tax base, stricter tax enforcement has played a crucial role.

Authorities have stepped up oversight of tax compliance, particularly in areas historically prone to underreporting, such as real estate transactions and small-scale business activities, including e-commerce. Enhanced monitoring, audits, and enforcement actions have improved compliance and reduced tax leakage without introducing new tax burdens.

The combination of strong macroeconomic performance and improved tax administration has led to a substantial, structural increase in budget revenues.

Structural Turning Point for Vietnam

The consecutive budget surpluses mark a historic turning point after decades of fiscal deficits. For investors, this development strengthens Vietnam’s sovereign balance sheet, enhances macro stability, supports currency resilience, and provides greater fiscal space for infrastructure and strategic investment.

Together, disciplined spending and improved revenue collection lay a solid foundation for sustainable long-term growth and reinforce confidence in Vietnam’s economic management.

At the end of February 2026, the fund’s largest positions were: Minh Phu Seafood Corp (9.8%) – a seafood company, Agriculture Bank Insurance (7.2%) – an insurance company, TNG Investment and Trading JSC (6.3%) – an apparel manufacturer, Lam Dong Minerals and Building Materials (6.2%) – a building material supplier, and Phu Tai JSC (6.1%) – a home and office furnishings company.

The portfolio was invested in 34 names and held 4.3% in cash. The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were consumer (42.1%) and financials (35.3%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 9.79x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.38x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.79%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 2.04 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Iraq Fund Performance

 

The AFC Iraq Fund Class D shares returned +1.5% in February 2026 with a NAV of USD 2,428.04, in line with its benchmark, the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index (RSISUSD index). The fund gained 43.5% in 2024 on the back of a stellar performance in 2023 of +110.4%. The fund is up by 1.2% for the year versus the index, which went up by 0.6%. Since inception, the fund has gained 142.8% while the RSISUSD index is up by 71.4%, an outperformance of 71.4%. The annualised return since inception of the fund stands at +8.7% p.a.

The market’s action throughout February was that of ticking up higher just as the “beautiful armada” was building up, with the average daily traded value increasing by about 26.5% above January’s low level – yet still about 42.1% below that of 2025 – and thus, supporting the assertion made last month in “Equity Market Discounts Regional Tensions”.

Trading on 1st March 2026, the market’s first trading day following the start of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, seems to support this assertion further, as the RSISX USD Index was down 1.4% by the end of the day, recovering about half its earlier losses. The daily traded value was up by about 51.3% above the average for February 2026, at about 87.6% of the 2025 average. Prices initially drifted lower over the next few days, declining by 3.2%, before recovering over half of these losses to an estimated decline of 0.7% by the end of the trading week on 5th March 2026. The initial selling was met by local buying interest, and was clearly not that of panic selling or selling driven by expectations of a war that is devastating for Iraq. From a technical analysis perspective, the decline is viewed in the context of the market pulling back from all-time highs, which, as asserted here often in the past, should be within its multi-month uptrend (chart below).

 

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

(Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, daily data as of 4th March 2026. Note: daily turnover adjusted for block trades)

 

While a few days do not make a trend, nor a month for that matter, especially in this highly fluid and dangerous period, the action of the Iraqi dinar (IQD)’s parallel market exchange rate against the U.S. dollar (USD) is in line with that of the equity market. As explained last month, the delta of the parallel market exchange rate over the official exchange rate has been increasing since mid-December due to domestic reasons related to the government’s implementation and automation of customs tariffs. That meant that the still informal section of importers faced difficulties in effecting cross-border transfers, leading to greater demand for USD in the parallel market, driving the rise of the delta, which continued increasing throughout February. It increased by a mere 2.5% on the day of the war’s start, but has since then declined to levels in line with the trend of increasing delta that prevailed just before the onset of the war (charts below).

 

Dinar Parallel Market Exchange Rate versus the Dollar
and its Delta over the Official Exchange Rate

Dinar Parallel Market Exchange Rate vs. the Dollar and its Delta over the Official Exchange Rate

 

 

 

Dinar Parallel Market Exchange Rate vs. the Dollar and its Delta over the Official Exchange Rate

(Source: Iraqi Central Statistical Organization, Iraqi Foreign Exchange Houses, AFC Research, data as of 4th March 2026. Note: second chart focuses on the period from 17th December 2025 to 4th March 2026 to provide greater granularity)

 

Oil markets, which resumed trading on 2nd March 2026, in which market expectations for future oil prices, as measured by Brent Futures contracts, spiked significantly as the war progressed. However, the spike is mostly in expectations for the immediate term and decline meaningfully after that. This change, in context, is evident in comparing the current expectations (orange line in chart below) against the extremely pessimistic ones at the end of 2025 (blue line in chart below), in which the increase (grey bars in chart below) is high in the immediate term but declines meaningfully after that. Moreover, current expectations are very different in scope and shape from those that prevailed following the invasions of Ukraine (red line in chart below).

 

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices
As measured by Brent Futures Contracts (USD per barrel)

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices As measured by Brent Futures Contracts (USD per barrel)

(Source: US Energy Information Administration, investing.com, AFC Research, data as of 4th March 2026)

 

The three markets’ logic is most likely that the expansion of the war, the attacks and counter attacks, raised the costs of the war considerably for the world at large – the sharp increases in gas prices, the re-routing of trade flows, the rise of fertilizer prices and their effects on food prices – and thus raised incentives for all concerned, direct and indirect combatants, for a quick resolution of this conflict. However, such a resolution is likely to be as badly framed as the reasons for the war’s start were, yet it could postpone a full resolution by several years.

While being fully cognizant of the geopolitical risks, we remain convinced that the high quality of the fund’s holdings, and their future earnings growth, will drive the fund’s performance irrespective of any volatility that the next few days and weeks might bring. The same holds for the two key dynamics, discussed here often – the cumulative positive effects of the relative stability and structural banking developments – that are in the early stages of their transformation of the economy, a process that will unfold over the next few years.

However, considerable risks remain, in that this war could escalate considerably beyond the control of participants, direct and indirect, and become an all-out war engulfing the region filled with all the nightmare scenarios that are popping in the media, by experts and “experts”, yet even these seem to be extreme.

At the end of February 2026, the AFC Iraq Fund was invested in 8 names and had a cash level of 1.6%. The fund invests in both local and foreign-listed companies that have the majority of their business activities in Iraq. The markets with the largest asset allocation were Iraq (96.6%), Norway (1.7%), and the U.K. (0.1%).

The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (66.5%) and communications (20.7%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 6.78x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.96x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 6.89%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.06 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Asia Frontier Fund Performance

 

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund (AAFF) USD A-shares returned −0.2% in February 2026 with a NAV of USD 2,428.53. The MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index returned +2.4%, while the MSCI Frontier Markets Net Total Return USD Index went up by +2.4%, and the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index increased by +0.7%. Year to date, the fund has delivered a +6.1% return. The performance of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund USD A-shares since inception on 30th March 2012 now stands at +142.9% while the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index returned +27.5% during the same period. The fund’s annualised performance over 5 years is +11.6% with a Sharpe ratio of 0.83 and a Sortino ratio of 1.2. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio has resulted in low risk with an annualised volatility of 10.3% and a correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index of 0.49, all based on monthly observations since inception.

After a very strong start to the year in January, the AFC Asia Frontier Fund took a breather this month. The key positive contributors to performance were Bangladesh, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Papua New Guinea, Oman, and Iraq. The major negative contributor during the month was Pakistan.

The major positives in our fund universe were the parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, which were held on 12th February 2026, with the results coming in line with our expectations as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won a clean majority with 212 seats out of the 296 contested seats. Mr. Tarique Rahman was sworn in as the new Prime Minister on 17th February 2026.

We have been communicating in our past newsletters that a stable government post the parliamentary elections will be a key catalyst for the stock market. The Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index gained +8.7% in February as investors cheered the outlook for much greater clarity on both the political and economic fronts.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index has gained +14% so far this year, but we expect further gains since the political platform has been set to deliver better economic growth, which should re-rate very discounted valuations even further. The fund increased its weight to Bangladesh before the elections, and the country’s weight is now a healthy 10.2%. Returns in Bangladesh so far this year have been led by the fund’s two bank holdings, BRAC Bank and City Bank.

 

Majority Win for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party is Very Positive for Bangladesh’s Economic Recovery

Majority Win for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party is Very Positive for Bangladesh’s Economic Recovery

(Source: AFC Research)

 

BRAC Bank and City Bank have led Returns in Bangladesh this Year

BRAC Bank and City Bank have led Returns in Bangladesh this Year

(Source: Bloomberg, % change in prices between 31st December 2025 – 26th February 2026)

 

We were on the ground in Vietnam in February for an investor conference, which we attend every year, and met with the fund’s portfolio companies and also other names on our radar. The key takeaway was that sentiment on the ground was much more positive compared to our visit twelve months ago, with domestic consumer discretionary companies sounding much more confident on their outlook compared to a few quarters ago.

Overall domestic retail sales in Vietnam have been lagging GDP growth in the last two years but we are now seeing good momentum in consumer discretionary spending for items such as consumer appliances, smartphones, and jewellery products. With an outlook of more than 8% GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, we anticipate the ongoing domestic consumption recovery to continue and therefore increased our weight of the fund’s two consumer discretionary holdings, Mobile World and Phu Nhuan Jewellery.

 

On the Ground in Ho Chi Minh City at Mobile World Store:
We are Positive on Domestic Consumption

On the Ground in Ho Chi Minh City at Mobile World Store – We are Positive Domestic Consumption

(Source: AFC Research)

 

The correction in the KSE100 Index in Pakistan during the month was because of border tensions with Afghanistan, and in our view, it is a buying opportunity, especially now that the conflict in the Middle East has led to further nervousness among domestic investors. 

The top-down case for Pakistan remains intact in the form of much greater macroeconomic stability, inflation being under control and the impact of lower interest now beginning to have a very positive impact on economic and earnings growth. During the month, we took advantage of the ongoing weakness and added to Lucky Cement, which is the fund’s largest position in Pakistan.

 

Pakistan is a Buy – The KSE100 Index has Recovered Swiftly from Previous Episodes of Geopolitical Tensions

Pakistan is a Buy – The KSE100 Index has Recovered Swiftly from Previous Episodes of Geopolitical Tensions

(Source: Bloomberg, Right Axis KSE100 Index Value, Left Axis KSE100 Index P/E Ratio)

 

The best-performing indexes in the AAFF universe in February were Oman (+16.8%) and Bangladesh (+8.7%). The poorest-performing markets were Pakistan (−8.5%) and Mongolia (−2.8%). The top-performing portfolio stocks this month were a copper explorer in Mongolia (+61.9%), a gold producer in Papua New Guinea (+28.6%), a Bangladeshi bank (+26.9%), a port operator in Vietnam (+23.2%), and an Omani telecom operator (+18.6%).

In February, the fund added to existing positions in Mongolia, Oman, Pakistan and Vietnam.

At the end of February 2026, the portfolio was invested in 62 companies, 2 funds, and held 3.7% in cash. The two biggest stock positions were a bank in Uzbekistan (5.2%) and a cement producer in Pakistan (3.8%). The countries with the largest asset allocation were Pakistan (15.2%), Sri Lanka (13.1%), and Uzbekistan (11.4%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (37.8%) and consumer goods (17.5%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 6.98x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.32x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 4.04%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.17 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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I hope you have enjoyed reading this newsletter. If you would like any further information, please get in touch with me or my colleagues at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

Disclaimer:

This Newsletter is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. No such offer or solicitation will be made prior to the delivery of the Offering Documents. Before making an investment decision, potential investors should review the Offering Documents and inform themselves as to the legal requirements and tax consequences within the countries of their citizenship, residence, domicile and place of business with respect to the acquisition, holding or disposal of shares, and any foreign exchange restrictions that may be relevant thereto. This newsletter is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law and regulation, and is intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is intended. The information and opinions contained in this Newsletter have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources deemed reliable. Opinions expressed are current as of the date appearing in this Newsletter only. Neither Asia Frontier Capital Ltd (AFCL), nor any of its subsidiaries or affiliates will make any representation or warranty to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements”, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of Funds managed by AFCL or its subsidiaries and affiliates may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

For Switzerland only: This is an advertising document. The state of the origin of the fund is the Cayman Islands. This document may only be provided to qualified investors within the meaning of art. 10 para. 3 and 3ter CISA. In Switzerland, the representative is Acolin Fund Services AG, Maintower, Thurgauerstrasse 36/38, 8050 Zurich, Switzerland, whilst the paying agent is NPB Neue Privat Bank AG, Limmatquai 1 / am Bellevue, 8024 Zurich, Switzerland. The basic documents of the fund report may be obtained free of charge from the representative. Past performance is no indication of current or future performance. The performance data do not take account of the commissions, if any, and fund transfer costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units.

AFC Asia Frontier Fund is registered for sale to qualified/professional investors in Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. AFC Iraq Fund and AFC Uzbekistan Fund in Singapore, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. AFC Vietnam Fund in Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. 

By accessing information contained herein, users are deemed to be representing and warranting that they are either a Hong Kong Professional Investor or are observing the applicable laws and regulations of their relevant jurisdictions.

© Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. All rights reserved.

 
 
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