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Asia Frontier Fund and AFC Uzbekistan Fund Start the Year on a Very Strong Note - January 2026 Update

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“It's better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right.

– Mark Twain (Samuel Langhorne Clemens) - American writer, humourist, and essayist

 

 
 
 
 NAV1Performance3
 (USD)January
2026
Since
Inception
AFC Asia Frontier Fund USD A2,433.41+6.3%+143.3%

MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index2

 0.1%+24.4%
AFC Iraq Fund USD D2,392.16−0.3%+139.2%
Rabee Securities US Dollar Equity Index 0.9%+68.9%
AFC Uzbekistan Fund USD F1,796.16+18.8%+79.6%

Tashkent Stock Exchange Index (in USD)

 +3.6%-12.5%
AFC Vietnam Fund USD C3,704.00+4.3%+270.4%
Ho Chi Minh City VN Index (in USD) +3.9%+192.6%
 
 
  1. The NAV given is for the lead share series for the relevant master fund. Investors’ holdings may be in a different share class, series, or currency and have a different NAV. See the factsheets and your statement for full details.
  2. Between 31st May 2017 and 30th November 2021 the benchmark was adjusted to be 37% of the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index “MSCI Index” and 63% of the Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index in USD due to the removal of Pakistan from the MSCI Index during this period.
  3. NAV and performance figures are all net of fees.
 

 

 

Asian frontier markets began the year on a stellar note with our AFC Uzbekistan Fund witnessing a big re-rating with a gain of +18.8%, followed by the AFC Asia Frontier Fund gaining +6.3%. The continuation of the strength in AFC Funds into the new year does not surprise us, as we have been anticipating a multi-year re-rating in our markets.

You can learn more about our structurally positive view on Asian frontier markets by watching our quarterly webinar, which was held on 22nd January 2026. There were some excellent questions posted during the webinar, especially pertaining to Bangladesh, Iraq, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. You can watch the webinar recording on our YouTube channel or you can view the presentation using the buttons below:

 

Replay Webinar

 

Webinar Slides

 
 

Asia Asset Management’s 2026 Best of the Best Awards

Award

 

I am pleased to share that the AFC Asia Frontier Fund has been recognised in Asia Asset Management’s "2026 Best of the Best Awards" in the “Frontier Markets” category. This industry accolade highlights our long term commitment to uncovering high quality opportunities in some of the world’s most dynamic frontier economies and to delivering disciplined, research driven performance for our investors. It is a wonderful and well deserved recognition of the excellent work by our fund managers, Thomas Hugger and Ruchir Desai, and the entire investment team behind the strategy.

 

Best Wishes for the Year of the Horse

 

CNY

 

The entire team at AFC would like to wish all our investors and newsletter readers a very Happy Chinese New Year and our warmest wishes for a prosperous and healthy Year of the Horse. May the year ahead bring you strong opportunities, good fortune, and continued success in all your endeavours, and of course great returns for the AFC Funds.

 

February 2026 Subscription Cut-Off Date

The next cut-off date for subscriptions for our funds will be 23rd February 2026. If you would like to know more about the subscription process, please get in touch with us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Please find below the managers’ comments on each of our four funds for January 2026.

 
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AFC Travel

Thomas Hugger, Ruchir Desai, and Peter de Vries are based in Hong Kong, while Andreas Vogelsanger is based in Bangkok, Vicente Nguyen in Ho Chi Minh City, Scott Osheroff in Tashkent, and Ahmed Tabaqchali in London and Iraq. If you have an interest in meeting with our team at their homeports or during their travels, please contact Peter de Vries at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

Amman, Jordan 7th - 14th February Ahmed Tabaqchali
Hong Kong 8th - 13th February Andreas Vogelsanger
London 14th February - 9th March Ahmed Tabaqchali
Hong Kong 8th - 13th March Andreas Vogelsanger
Hong Kong 22nd March - 3rd April Andreas Vogelsanger
Ho Chi Minh City 23rd - 27th March Ruchir Desai

 

 

 
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AFC Uzbekistan Fund - Manager Comment

 

AFC Uzbekistan Fund Performance

 

The AFC Uzbekistan Fund Class F shares returned +18.8% in January 2026 with a NAV of USD 1,796.16. The return since inception (29th March 2019) now stands at +71.6%, representing an annualised return of +8.9% p.a.

With the Uzbek National Investment Fund (UzNIF) IPO planned for the second quarter of 2026, we continue to observe increasing momentum in capital allocation from foreign and local investors in Uzbekistan’s capital markets. While the majority of the needed legislation is in place for the government’s coming state-owned enterprise privatisation push through the stock market, with no notable news in January, we will keep this update short, as the market is merely reacting to the positive potential and active developments that we have been harping on about for the past several years.

As the legislation and infrastructure rails are largely already in place to enable a functioning IPO market (with sufficient capital in the ecosystem), we should see the next phase of the re-rating (which is clearly underway) accelerate. Blue-chip listed companies from financial services to materials are already attracting fresh (foreign) capital, which contributed to the fund’s superb performance during the month.

It remains early days in the nascent capital markets of Uzbekistan, however. It needs to be noted that the country’s rapid expansion has years to run. Uzbekistan has the largest population in Central Asia at 38 million. The country is fast emerging as the geopolitical centre of the region and is already THE location for foreign investors’ headquarters and factories when looking to position themselves in the region. Additionally, with an abundance of natural resources, specifically gold, the macro backdrop couldn’t be better. As we see SOEs IPO on the Tashkent Stock Exchange (first UzNIF in 2Q 2026, followed by Uzbekistan Airways, the national airline, in 2H 2026) and the ecosystem mature, we expect over the coming years for the next phase of development to be in private sector IPOs. While the valuation inflection in the market occurred in 2025, looking forward, 2026 is set to be the transitional year for the country’s capital markets which will confirm our long-held thesis of the snowball effect from infrastructure implementation to SOE IPOs to a robust private sector IPO market and a broad deepening and sophistication of the capital markets that no doubt could become the largest capital market ecosystem in Central Asia, supplanting the Astana International Stock Exchange in Kazakhstan. The AFC Uzbekistan Fund, being the first mover in the market, is set to significantly benefit from these increasingly strong tailwinds as valuations remain incredibly low and foreign and local activity in the market, while growing, is on the verge of a step change higher. The outlook for Uzbekistan’s capital markets has never been brighter.

At the end of January 2026, the fund was invested in 23 names and held 8.5% in cash. The portfolio was allocated to Uzbekistan (91.49%) and Kyrgyzstan (0.04%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (65.2%) and materials (12.9%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 5.26x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 0.86x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 2.19%.

 
 
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AFC Asia Frontier Fund Performance

 

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund (AAFF) USD A-shares returned +6.3% in January 2026 with a NAV of USD 2,433.41. The MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index returned −0.1%, while the MSCI Frontier Markets Net Total Return USD Index went up by +3.9%, and the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index increased by +2.2%. The performance of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund USD A-shares since inception on 30th March 2012 now stands at +143.3% while the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index returned +24.4% during the same period. The fund’s annualised performance over 5 years is +12.5% with a Sharpe ratio of 0.93 and a Sortino ratio of 1.3. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio has resulted in low risk with an annualised volatility of 10.4% and a correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index of 0.49, all based on monthly observations since inception.

The year has begun on a powerful note for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund, as we witnessed a continuation of the broad-based rally across our markets, which we anticipated over the past few quarters. Gains were led by Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. There were no material negative contributors during the month. The gains made by the fund in January once again display the excellent diversification benefits that Asian frontier markets offer to sophisticated investors.

With potentially positive catalysts on the horizon in Bangladesh in the form of parliamentary elections on 12th February 2026, we increased our weight to Bangladesh by acquiring shares of the largest consumer electronics manufacturer in the country, as this will be a good proxy for recovering consumer demand. We also increased our existing position in a Bangladeshi bank.

On 9th February 2026, the U.S. announced that it will be reducing Bangladesh’s reciprocal tariff to 19% from 20%, but more importantly, Bangladesh garment and textile exports made from U.S. raw materials will be exempt from U.S. reciprocal tariffs.

We expect this to be a big positive for Bangladesh’s garment exports because it is the country’s largest export industry, and the U.S. is its largest market. Bangladesh has the third-highest market share in U.S. apparel imports, and with continued attractive duties, we believe its market share could see a further increase. 

In addition to this favourable trade agreement with the U.S., Bangladesh also signed an economic partnership agreement with Japan on 6th February 2026, which will allow duty-free access to a large number of Bangladeshi export items to Japan, which importantly also includes garments. Overall, these trade agreements with the U.S. and Japan are a major positive for Bangladesh’s macro recovery story.

 

U.S. Apparel Import Market Share - Bangladesh Can Gain Further

U.S. Apparel Import Market Share - Bangladesh Can Gain on Duty Free Access

(Source: U.S. Office of Textiles and Apparel Trade Data)

 

In Sri Lanka, we expect reconstruction activities to rise significantly due to the damage caused by the recent cyclone. Therefore, the fund bought a stake in one of the largest construction companies, which is well exposed to the construction of roads and bridges, which accounts for a large part of the ongoing reconstruction requirements in Sri Lanka.

The fund’s Vietnam holdings had a solid start to the year, with all our key holdings doing well as investors account for the robust outlook for economic growth, which will be positive, especially for domestic consumption, a segment that has lagged overall growth in the last few years.

 

AFC Asia Frontier Fund Vietnam Holdings Began the Year on a Strong Note

AFC Asia Frontier Fund Vietnam Holdings Began the Year on a Strong Note

(Source: Bloomberg, % change in prices between 31st December 2025 – 30th January 2026)

 

The best-performing indexes in the AAFF universe in January were Kazakhstan (+9.5%) and Oman (+7.9%). The poorest-performing markets were Iraq (−0.9%) and Cambodia (−0.3%). The top-performing portfolio stocks this month were a Kazakh uranium miner (+47.3%), a power producer in Laos (+32.7%), a gold explorer in Papua New Guinea (+32.2%), a jewellery retailer in Vietnam (+30.9%), and a Vietnamese bank (+22.6%).

In January, the fund added to the portfolio holdings in a consumer appliance manufacturer in Bangladesh, a consumer healthcare company in Pakistan, a construction company in Sri Lanka and a mobile phone operator with businesses in multiple Asian frontier countries. During the month, the fund also added to existing positions in Bangladesh, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, and Vietnam.

At the end of January 2026, the portfolio was invested in 62 companies, 2 funds, and held 3.1% in cash. The two biggest stock positions were a bank in Uzbekistan (5.5%) and a cement producer in Pakistan (4.1%). The countries with the largest asset allocation were Pakistan (17.3%), Sri Lanka (13.4%), and Uzbekistan (11.5%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (37.1%) and consumer goods (18.0%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 7.32x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.44x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.51%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.17 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Vietnam Fund - Manager Comment

AFC Vietnam Fund Performance

 

The AFC Vietnam Fund returned +4.3% in January with a NAV of USD 3,704.00, bringing the return since inception to +270.40%. This month, the fund outperformed the benchmark, the Ho Chi Minh City VN Index, which gained +3.9% in USD terms. The fund’s annualised return since inception stands at +11.4% p.a. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio resulted in an annualised volatility of 14.65%, a Sharpe ratio of 0.64, and a low correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Index USD of 0.49, all based on monthly observations since inception.

 

VN-Index from December 2024 to January 2026

VN-Index from December 2024 to January 2026

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

Market Developments

The index was strongly supported by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), including Petrovietnam Gas (GAS) (97% state-owned), Vietnam National Petroleum Group (PLX) (77%), Bank for Foreign Trade (VCB), Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BID), Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank For Industry and Trade (CTG), Vietnam Rubber Group (GVR), and Bao Viet Holdings (BVH). Domestic retail investors rotated speculative capital into these names after the Politburo issued Resolution 79, which aims to improve the operational efficiency and profitability of state-owned enterprises. Although the resolution will take time to translate into tangible earnings improvements, it has already provided a significant boost to investor confidence and near-term market sentiment.

Resolution 79 to Improve State-Owned Enterprises’ Performance

The Politburo’s Resolution 79, issued on 6th January 2026, marks a decisive shift in Vietnam’s approach to SOEs, moving away from rigid administrative control toward a market-driven, performance-oriented governance model. The resolution aims to unlock efficiency, competitiveness, and capital productivity across the SOE sector.

Key reforms include a clear separation between political mandates and commercial activities, market-based compensation and performance evaluation for SOE management, the hiring of professional CEOs, and a strategic focus on scaling strong SOEs in critical sectors such as energy, infrastructure, finance, defence, and digital technology. Modern governance standards are set to be fully adopted across the sector.

Resolution 79 sets ambitious long-term targets: by 2030, at least 50 Vietnamese SOEs among Southeast Asia’s top 500 companies, and by 2045, 1–3 SOEs entering the global top 500. Greater transparency in asset management, expanded public-private partnerships, and accelerated digital transformation further strengthen the investment case.

Together with Resolution 68 on private-sector development, Vietnam has now activated both engines of growth, state and private enterprises, creating a powerful policy foundation for sustained high growth and improved capital market performance in the 2026–2030 period and beyond.

Vietnam’s Outstanding Economic Performance in 2025

In 2025, major international institutions, including the World Bank, IMF, OECD, ADB, UOB, and Fitch, significantly underestimated Vietnam’s economic resilience, forecasting GDP growth of just 5.8–6.9%. In reality, Vietnam delivered a standout 8.02% expansion, outperforming all expectations and ranking among the world’s fastest-growing economies.

This outperformance highlights Vietnam’s ability to thrive despite global headwinds such as U.S. tariff pressures, trade uncertainty, and slowing external demand. Strong exports, record FDI inflows, accelerating public investment, and agile policy execution proved far more powerful than anticipated.

Growth was broad-based and fundamentally strong. Despite fears of capital flight after the announcement of a 46% U.S. tariff on 2nd April 2025, Vietnam attracted a record USD 38 bn in registered FDI, while disbursed FDI rose 9% YoY to an all-time high of USD 27.6 bn.

Exports also exceeded expectations, with total export turnover reaching USD 475 bn (+17% YoY). Exports to the U.S. surged 28% to a record USD 153 bn, decisively beating forecasts. These results confirm that Vietnam was not only resilient to U.S. tariffs but, in many sectors, emerged as a clear beneficiary of the shifting global trade landscape.

 

Exports in USD bn

Exports in USD bn

(Source: GSO, AFC Research)

 

Mr. To Lam Re-elected as General Secretary: Political Stability and Growth Continuity

Mr. To Lam was re-elected for a second term as General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party, the country’s most powerful leadership position, reinforcing Vietnam’s political stability and policy continuity. His re-election signals a strong internal consensus and provides a clear runway for long-term economic reform.

Under Mr. To Lam’s leadership, Vietnam has introduced decisive, growth-oriented policies, most notably Resolutions 68 and 79, aimed at strengthening the private sector and improving the performance of state-owned enterprises. He has also set highly ambitious economic targets: 8% GDP growth in 2025 and an average of 10% per year for 2026–2030.

While these targets are demanding, Vietnam’s exceptional 2025 performance, beating nearly all forecasts from major global institutions, demonstrates the country’s strong execution capability and reform momentum. Even if growth ultimately falls slightly below the headline targets, the clear strategic direction, policy resolve, and reform drive significantly enhance Vietnam’s long-term investment appeal.

We believe Vietnam is well positioned to sustain high growth in 2026 and beyond, supported by stable leadership, bold policymaking, and proven economic resilience.

 

Mr. To Lam, General Secretary

To Lam, General Secretary

(Source: VnExpress)

 

Vietnam–EU Partnership Marks a Strategic Turning Point

The elevation of Vietnam–EU relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in early 2026 marks a major milestone and is already translating into strong economic outcomes. Bilateral trade reached around USD 78 bn in 2025, supported by the EVFTA, while Vietnam recorded robust GDP growth of 8.02%, the highest in the region, with GDP per capita rising to USD 5,026, firmly placing the country in the upper-middle-income bracket.

EU leaders praised Vietnam’s economic progress and reaffirmed their commitment to deepen cooperation in trade, supply-chain diversification, the green transition, maritime affairs, and infrastructure, while advancing discussions on an ASEAN-EU FTA and supporting the removal of the IUU yellow card.

Against the backdrop of U.S. reciprocal tariffs of up to 20%, the strengthened EU partnership provides a powerful counterbalance. It secures stable market access, reduces reliance on the U.S., mitigates tariff risks, and reinforces Vietnam’s export growth trajectory, supporting the country’s ambitious 10% annual GDP growth targets through 2030.

 

Trade Between Vietnam and EU (USD bn)

Trade Between Vietnam and EU (USD bn)

(Source: GSO, AFC Research)

 

AFC Vietnam Fund Is Deeply Undervalued

In Q4 2025, earnings growth for listed Vietnamese companies was estimated at around 10% YoY, while the AFC Vietnam Fund’s portfolio delivered approximately 20% earnings growth, substantially higher than the market average. This strength was driven primarily by our export-focused holdings, notably PTB, MPC, and TNG, which all posted outstanding operating results.

TNG Investment & Trading delivered another record year, with net profit rising 50% YoY in Q4 2025 and reaching an all-time high of VND 392 bn for full-year 2025. Despite this exceptional performance, TNG’s share price fell nearly 20% during 2025, pushing its valuation down to just 6.6x earnings, an extremely low multiple for a fast-growing exporter. As value investors, we firmly believe that share prices ultimately follow fundamentals. Encouragingly, TNG has begun to recover, rising 17.5% in January 2026, which may mark the start of a long-overdue re-rating.

 

TNG from December 2024 to January 2026

TNG from December 2024 to January 2026

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

A similar disconnect is evident at Phu Tai (PTB). While the company reported strong profit growth in 2025, driven by robust export demand, its share price declined sharply. As a result, PTB now trades at only 7.3x earnings, despite solid earnings visibility.

Minh Phu Corporation (MPC), Vietnam’s largest shrimp exporter, represents one of the most striking turnarounds. After posting a loss of VND 191 bn in 2024, MPC is expected to report approximately VND 700 bn in net profit in 2025. Management highlighted a surge in global orders, particularly from the U.S., as higher tariffs on Chinese and Indian seafood redirected demand toward Vietnam. To meet this demand, MPC is constructing a new factory scheduled to begin operations in Q2 2026. Management estimates 2026 net profit of VND 1,000–1,200 bn, with 10–15% annual growth through 2030. Even on 2026 earnings, MPC trades at just 6.6x forward P/E, while its share price has yet to reflect the dramatic improvement in fundamentals.

 

Minh Phu’s New Factory Under Construction

Minh Phu’s New Factory Under Construction

(Source: MPC, AFC Research)

 

Beyond exports, infrastructure-related holdings also performed strongly. LBM, one of our top 10 positions, benefited directly from Vietnam’s aggressive public investment push. In 2025, LBM’s net profit surged more than 50% to a record high. Management expects 20–25% annual growth over the next five years, supported by government infrastructure spending and regional expansion in Lam Dong Province.

Overall, all export-related positions in our portfolio trade below 8x earnings, while the average of our top 10 holdings is below 10x earnings, despite strong growth visibility and improving fundamentals.

Given this combination of accelerating earnings, deeply discounted valuations, and powerful macro tailwinds, we believe AFC Vietnam Fund offers substantial upside potential in 2026 and beyond. In our view, this is a compelling entry point for long-term investors.

At the end of January 2026, the fund’s largest positions were: Minh Phu Seafood Corp (7.9%) – a seafood company, Agriculture Bank Insurance (7.2%) – an insurance company, Lam Dong Minerals and Building Materials (6.2%) – a building material supplier, TNG Investment and Trading JSC (5.9%) – an apparel manufacturer, and Phu Tai JSC (5.8%) – a home and office furnishings company.

The portfolio was invested in 34 names and held 4.6% in cash. The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were consumer (39.9%) and financials (36.5%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 9.65x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.36x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.84%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 4.60 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Iraq Fund Performance

 

The AFC Iraq Fund Class D shares returned −0.3% in January 2026 with a NAV of USD 2,392.16, outperforming its benchmark, the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index (RSISUSD index), which lost 0.9% during the month. This comes on the back of a solid three-year rally in which the AFC Iraq Fund was up 253.0% by the end of 2025, outperforming the RSISX USD Index’s 224.5% increase. Since inception, the fund has gained 139.2% while the RSISUSD index is up by 68.9%, an outperformance of 70.3%. The annualised return since inception of the fund stands at +8.6% p.a.

The year began with three significant developments, two of which were marked by conflict, that ordinarily would have been expected to negatively impact the equity market, or at a minimum lead market participants to sell to preserve profits. This was especially true given that the developments came at the end of such a significant three-year rally. However, the equity market looked through them, with the RSISX USD Index trading in a narrow range of -1.2% to +0.9% versus the close of 2025, while average-daily turnover was down 41.9% versus that of the prior three months (turnover adjusted for block trades). Thus, supporting the thesis that the market's technical picture continues to be positive, and that the RSISX USD Index is continuing with the process of consolidating its gains that started in December 2024, following a blistering 35.9% three-month rally. While this consolidation could continue over the next few weeks, the likely consolidation or pullback should be within its multi-month uptrend (chart below).

 

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

(Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, daily data as of 29th January 2026. Note: daily turnover adjusted for block trades)

 

The first of the three developments was the massive anti-government demonstrations in Iran that began in the last days of 2025, and expanded significantly throughout early January to become the most-significant anti-government demonstrations since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979, before a bloody crackdown seemed to end them, or at least for now. Unlike prior protests, this was a protest that erupted in the bazar, traditionally conservative and loyal to the regime, whose joining the then ongoing massive anti-government protests in 1979 played a major factor in ending the prior regime. Consequently, rising fears of significant political instability in Iran, which were magnified by U.S. threats to the regime and the build-up of President Trump’s “beautiful armada”. All of which come with potentially negative consequences for the region, and especially for Iraq, which shares a 1,600 km border with Iran, as well as close political and economic ties.

The second of the three developments was the nomination of Nouri al-Maliki as the new Prime Minister (PM) designate, part of the ongoing government formation, who was the sitting PM in June 2014 when ISIS took over the country’s second largest city. The choice was controversial as the nominee was viewed as being largely responsible for the sectarian tensions in the country during his two tenures as PM, from 2006-2014, that eventually led to the rise of ISIS. The U.S. administration reacted negatively to this nomination, viewing it as a pro-Iran development, and issued threats that included measures which could negatively affect Iraq’s access to its oil revenues and foreign reserves. While the fears over access to oil revenues and foreign reserves are overblown, rooted in misunderstandings, U.S. threats to Iraq are a negative development. 

The final of the three developments was the government’s implementation, at the start of 2026, of long-overdue customs tariffs, part of its plans for increasing non-oil revenues that was made possible following the automation and digitisation of tariff collection processes over the prior months. While the implementation is an aspect of the cumulative positive effects of relative stability that leads to more efficient government processes, local importers reacted negatively as this implementation was linked to affecting cross-border transfers by these importers. Thus, essentially linked to the Central Bank of Iraq’s (CBI) implementation in November 2022 of its then new procedural requirements for the provisioning of U.S. dollars (USD) for importers; which subsequently was a crucial factor in the acceleration of the secular transformation of the economy towards formality and banking. However, the move towards formality is a multi-year process, and as such, the still informal section of importers faced difficulties in effecting cross-border transfers, leading to greater demand for USD in the parallel market. This then led to an increase in the delta of the parallel market exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar (IQD) versus the USD over the official exchange rate. The delta spiked in late January 2026 in response to the US threats but has since subsided somewhat (chart below). While the increase in the delta is a negative development, in that it has effects on the economy and access to foreign goods, the increase only brought the delta to levels that prevailed at the end of 2024 –and thus part of the delta’s long-term decline as the economy moves towards much increased formality and banking adoption.

 

Dinar Parallel Market Exchange Rate vs. the U.S. Dollar 
and its Delta over the Official Exchange Rate

VINGROUP Corporation (VIC) – Valuation

(Source: Iraqi Central Statistical Organization, Iraqi Foreign Exchange Houses, AFC Research, data as of 31st January 2026)

 

As negative as these developments are, and still can be, the equity market looked through them and continued to discount the ongoing secular transformation of the economy driven by the two key dynamics, discussed here in the past, i.e. the cumulative positive effects of the relative stability and structural banking developments. The market’s looking through the three developments is mirrored by the muted increase in expectations for future oil prices, as measured by Brent crude futures contracts as of 31st January 2026 – which are only about 9.5% higher for the next 18-months versus the same expectations as of 31st December 2025, a figure that mostly reflects expectations of short-term disruptions to supplies, and not major threats to the region’s oil supplies (chart below).

 

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices
As measured by Brent Futures Contracts (USD per barrel)

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices As measured by Brent Futures Contracts (USD per barrel)

(Source: US Energy Information Administration, investing.com, AFC Research, data as of 31st January 2026)

 

As asserted in the outlook for 2026, the over-arching theme is that both of the two key dynamics –the cumulative positive effects of the relative stability and structural banking developments– are in the early stages of their transformation of the economy, a process that should unfold over the next few years, bringing with it high economic growth that would feed into higher corporate profits, and ultimately higher stock market returns. We believe that the fund’s holdings stand to capture these returns in the next few years in the same way that they did in 2023-25.

However, risks remain given Iraq’s recent history of conflict, the continued risks of U.S.-Iran tensions escalating into an actual conflict, Iraq’s extreme leverage to volatile oil prices, as well as the real risk that a sustained crash in oil prices, of two years or more, will derail the economy’s secular transformation. 

At the end of January 2026, the AFC Iraq Fund was invested in 8 names and had a cash level of 1.5%. The fund invests in both local and foreign-listed companies that have the majority of their business activities in Iraq. The markets with the largest asset allocation were Iraq (96.7%), Norway (1.7%), and the U.K. (0.1%).

The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (65.9%) and communications (21.0%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 6.81x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.96x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 6.87%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.06 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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I hope you have enjoyed reading this newsletter. If you would like any further information, please get in touch with me or my colleagues at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

"Kung Hei Fat Choy" and kind regards,

Thomas Hugger
CEO & Fund Manager

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Disclaimer:

This Newsletter is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. No such offer or solicitation will be made prior to the delivery of the Offering Documents. Before making an investment decision, potential investors should review the Offering Documents and inform themselves as to the legal requirements and tax consequences within the countries of their citizenship, residence, domicile and place of business with respect to the acquisition, holding or disposal of shares, and any foreign exchange restrictions that may be relevant thereto. This newsletter is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law and regulation, and is intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is intended. The information and opinions contained in this Newsletter have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources deemed reliable. Opinions expressed are current as of the date appearing in this Newsletter only. Neither Asia Frontier Capital Ltd (AFCL), nor any of its subsidiaries or affiliates will make any representation or warranty to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements”, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of Funds managed by AFCL or its subsidiaries and affiliates may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

For Switzerland only: This is an advertising document. The state of the origin of the fund is the Cayman Islands. This document may only be provided to qualified investors within the meaning of art. 10 para. 3 and 3ter CISA. In Switzerland, the representative is Acolin Fund Services AG, Maintower, Thurgauerstrasse 36/38, 8050 Zurich, Switzerland, whilst the paying agent is NPB Neue Privat Bank AG, Limmatquai 1 / am Bellevue, 8024 Zurich, Switzerland. The basic documents of the fund report may be obtained free of charge from the representative. Past performance is no indication of current or future performance. The performance data do not take account of the commissions, if any, and fund transfer costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units.

AFC Asia Frontier Fund is registered for sale to qualified/professional investors in Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. AFC Iraq Fund and AFC Uzbekistan Fund in Singapore, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. AFC Vietnam Fund in Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. 

By accessing information contained herein, users are deemed to be representing and warranting that they are either a Hong Kong Professional Investor or are observing the applicable laws and regulations of their relevant jurisdictions.

© Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. All rights reserved.

 
 
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