Similarly, a cement company had EPS and book value growth of 134% and 18%, trading at an attractive P/E of 3.04x and P/B of 0.45x. Furthermore, an industrial producer of white spirits which we also visited on our investor tour in September, had an EPS growth of 128% and book value growth of 48%, and is now trading at a P/E of 4.19x and a P/B of 2.98x.
A modest position for the fund which we are beginning to pay more attention to and grow its weight for the fund is a consumer goods distribution and retail business we invested into in 2018, but which subsequently had two years of poor earnings as the business had to adjust to the new floating exchange rate mechanism. However, profitability has turned around in the past three years with ttm EPS growth of 111% YoY and book value growth of 14%, while the company trades at an unsustainably cheap P/E of 1.68x and P/B of 0.33x! This company is so undervalued likely due to it trading on the OTC market and therefore not being on the radar of many investors, specifically foreigners. However, when that changes, we expect a substantial rerating, hopefully after we’ve built a larger position!
We are delighted with the continued growth in earnings across the fund’s holdings. Now, the key will be seeing increased investor participation in the market to drive “multiple expansion”. There is a new capital markets information platform hosting equity prices, financial ratios, and charts which will be launched in the near future at which time we will share more about it as it will provide much greater market transparency to investors and will be a valuable private sector catalyst for the development of Uzbekistan’s capital markets.
The New Fertile Crescent is Shining
Throughout October, there were many notable news bites further acknowledging the regional integration I’ve been discussing for some while in these updates.
On October 17, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved a list of 25 countries whose citizens will be able to undergo remote identification to conduct financial transactions in Russia. The list includes Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova, as well as several other countries and is in line with our focus on regional integration. Russia’s economy is doing just fine and sanctions have largely been ineffective as the country has plenty of trading partners for its services and natural resources. Therefore, enabling Uzbeks, among others, to more easily bank in Russia is a net positive, especially as Uzbek remittances from Russia are Uzbekistan’s largest source of remittances, and Russia remains a key investor in Uzbekistan.
Furthermore, as Iran plans to develop a transit corridor through Central Asia to Uzbekistan, the two governments have been discussing eliminating visa requirements between the two countries as business picks up between the two countries with Iranian exporters of consumer goods, steel, cement, and other products expand into the region, as well as tourism of course.
Finally, on 29th and 30th October, Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khojaev visited Kabul/Afghanistan for negotiations on bilateral trade, where a roadmap was outlined for trade to increase to USD 3 bn per year, up from USD 760 mn in 2022. During this visit, the Afghan government gave reassurances to the Uzbek side that the development of the Qosh Tepa canal, which will divert water from the Amu Daryo River to irrigate northern Afghanistan (a plan originally drafted by USAID when Afghanistan was under U.S. occupation), would not have detrimental effects on Uzbekistan’s water supply.
Third AFC Uzbekistan Tour
For those interested in visiting Uzbekistan with us, we are planning our third AFC Uzbekistan Tour, which will be held from Sunday 19th May 2024 to Tuesday 21st May 2024. We will begin on the 19th with a day tour of Tashkent, followed by company meetings and site visits on the 20th and 21st. If you are interested in joining, please write us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .
At the end of October 2023, the fund was invested in 24 names and held 6.8% cash. The portfolio was allocated to Uzbekistan (93.15%) and Kyrgyzstan (0.04%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (41.3%) and materials (34.1%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 4.80x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 0.97x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.35%.
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