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The Re-Rating in Asian Frontier Markets has begun - July 2023 Update

The Re-Rating in Asian Frontier Markets has begun
 

 

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“Start unknown, finish unforgettable.”

– Misty Copeland - American ballet dancer for the American Ballet Theatre

 

 
 
 
 NAV1Performance3
 (USD)July
2023
Year to DateSince
Inception
AFC Asia Frontier Fund USD A1,364.27+4.0%+11.7%+36.4%

MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index2

 +8.5%+14.7%-18.7%
AFC Iraq Fund USD D1,016.76+7.9%+49.5%+1.7%

Rabee RSISX Index (in USD)

 +9.2%+42.3%-25.3%
AFC Uzbekistan Fund USD F1,831.54-0.8%+5.5%+83.2%

Tashkent Stock Exchange Index (in USD)

 -13.9%+66.6%-21.7%
AFC Vietnam Fund USD C3,413.27+6.1%+18.3%+241.3%
Ho Chi Minh City VN Index (in USD) +8.7%+21.1%+114.2%
 
 
  1. The NAV given is for the lead share series for the relevant master fund. Investors’ holdings may be in a different share class, series, or currency and have a different NAV. See the factsheets and your statement for full details.
  2. Between 31st May 2017 and 30th November 2021 the benchmark was adjusted to be 37% of the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index “MSCI Index” and 63% of the Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index in USD due to the removal of Pakistan from the MSCI Index during this period.
  3. NAV and performance figures are all net of fees.
 
 

 

 

Re-Rating Continues in Asian Frontier Markets and we Expect the Rally to Continue

Asian frontier markets had another solid month led by gains in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The ongoing upward re-rating in Asian frontier markets does not surprise us as we have been communicating since the end of 2022 that this would happen as inflation and interest rates are peaking and our universe will rally strongly given that our markets entered 2023 at significantly discounted valuations.

Year-to-date, many Asian frontier markets have significantly outperformed the region. They are among the best performers globally, with Sri Lanka being the best-performing market so far in 2023 in USD terms.

 

Asian Frontier Markets Had a Very Strong Month (July 2023 Returns in USD)

Asian Frontier Markets Had a Very Strong Month (July 2023 Returns in USD)

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

We believe that this rally can run into 2024 as monetary policy in many of our markets are expected to maintain or enter into an interest rate easing cycle while earnings should see a strong recovery in 2024. Furthermore, valuations in Asian frontier markets are still valued attractively relative to history. Hence, we believe the ongoing re-rating will be led by an expansion in P/E multiples as well as an earnings recovery. 

Most of the AFC Funds trade at single-digit P/E ratios, while the AFC Asia Frontier Fund is trading at its all-time low P/E ratio of 6.9x, and it is very well placed to capture this upside opportunity in Asian frontier markets.

 

Most Asian Frontier Markets are Significantly Outperforming the Region
(USD returns year to date)

Most Asian Frontier Markets are Significantly Outperforming the Region (USD returns year to date)

(Source: Bloomberg, % change in USD returns between 30th December 2022 – 31st July 2023)

 

This optimistic outlook on Asian frontier markets was discussed by our team in our quarterly webinar held on 25th July 2023. Click below to view the webinar recording or webinar presentation to learn why we are bullish on Asian frontier markets going forward.

 

 

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Webinar Slides

 

 

Our shareholder Dr. Marc Faber, publisher of the widely read Gloom, Boom & Doom report, will be speaking at Nomad Capitalist Live, the world’s foremost gathering of global citizens discussing second citizenship, legal offshore tax strategies, international investing, and the Nomad Capitalist Lifestyle. It is also the best place to meet and mingle with like-minded freedom seekers and visionaries. The event is organised by Andrew Henderson’s Nomad Capitalist from 6-9 September in Kuala Lumpur. For more information and registration, click the image below or contact Peter de Vries at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. . Investors can enjoy a discount.

 

 

Nomad Capitalist Live 2023

 

 
 
 
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AFC Travel

Netherlands 13th July - 25th August Peter de Vries
Hong Kong 13th - 23rd August Andreas Vogelsanger
Ho Chi Minh City 27th - 30th August Andreas Vogelsanger
 
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AFC Iraq Fund Performance

 

The AFC Iraq Fund Class D shares returned +7.9% in July 2023 with a NAV of USD 1,016.76 versus its benchmark, the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index (RSISUSD index), which gained 9.2% during the month. For the year, the AFC Iraq Fund is up 49.5%, outperforming the index’s increase of 42.3%. Since inception, the fund has gained 1.7% while the RSISUSD index is down 25.3%, an outperformance of 26.9%.

The market’s technical picture continues to be positive, with the macroeconomic fundamentals discussed here last year supporting our view that the market’s uptrend will likely remain in force. However, its upward slope will most likely moderate or go sideways given the summer holiday season with its lower volumes made worse by the start in late July of the 40-day Arbaeen pilgrimage. The pilgrimage’s climax marks the end of the 40-day mourning period (Arbaeen in Arabic) of the death of Prophet Muhammad's grandson, Imam Hussein, which this year will be on 6th September 2023. Economic activities slow down considerably during the Arbaeen, which is among the world’s largest annual pilgrimages, with a reported 21 million pilgrims taking part and walking to Karbala from across Iraq in 2022 – with about two-thirds of the pilgrims coming from Iraq and a third from Iran, Lebanon, the Gulf states, Pakistan, India, the U.K., and the U.S.

 

RSISX USD Index Versus Average Daily Turnover

RSISX USD Index Versus Average Daily Turnover

(Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, data as of 31st July 2023)

 

As written here in the last few months, the fundamental drivers for the market’s next move will come from the government’s implementation of the three-year 2023-2025 budget following its passage into law by mid-June 2023. The government has increased federal current expenditures by 21.5% in 2023 over 2022, representing a liquidity injection of 13.7% to 2022’s estimated federal non-oil GDP. The government’s planned non-oil investment spending for 2023 is meaningful and potentially far-reaching, which could add a further 13.2% liquidity injection to the non-oil economy, enhancing the liquidity injections of the government’s current expenditures. However, given the government’s historically low execution rate in investment spending and its capacity constraints, it is unlikely that most of this planned spending will materialize. Note: federal excludes the Kurdistan Region of Iraq ‘KRI’, details in the table and notes below (*).

 

Federal Planned Expenditures for 2023 versus 2022’s Actual Spending

Federal Planned Expenditures for 2023 versus 2022’s Actual Spending

(Source **: Ministry of Finance (MoF), IMF, AFC Research, data as of 30th June 2023)

 

As such, it will be the government’s current expenditures, in the form of the public sector payroll, social security, and spending on goods and services, that will kickstart the country’s economic rebound following an uncertain year marked by political conflict following the surprising 2021 parliamentary elections as discussed here in the last few months. Moreover, since the budget proposal became law in late June 2023, and given the slow machinery of government execution, the positive effects of the liquidity injection will likely take place in the second half of the year, which could magnify its effects. 

Meanwhile, global central banks’ rate hiking cycle is nearing its end, and the IMF, in late July 2023, modestly increased its global economic growth estimates to 3.0% for both 2023 and 2024 from its prior estimates of 2.8% and 3.0 respectively. Both of these are positive for global oil demand, and thus supportive for oil prices, as reflected in market expectations for future Brent crude prices – as seen in long-term futures contracts with current expectations shifting higher from the lows of May 2023, and are now at the upper end of the range marked by expectations at the end of 2021 and those at the height of the Ukraine war (yellow, blue, red, and red lines respectively in the chart below). All of this is ultimately positive for the government’s oil revenues in funding its expenditures over the course of the expansionary three-year 2023-2025 budget.

 

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices
As Measured by Brent Futures Contacts (USD per barrel)

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices As Measured by Brent Futures Contacts (USD per barrel)

(Source: Futures contracts prices from the Wall Street Journal as of 31st July 2023, Brent FOB prices from the US Energy Information Administration data as 24th July 2023)

 

The positive global macro developments, and the budget’s sizable liquidity injections that will feed into meaningful growth in corporate profits, should both help to sustain the market’s current rally. Even after the strong year-to-date performance of 42.3%, the index is still about 46.7% below its 2014 peak as it is in the early stages of recovering from a brutal multi-year bear market that saw the index at the end of 2020 down by 68.0% from its 2014 all-time high.

At the end of July 2023, the AFC Iraq Fund was invested in 14 names and had a cash level of 2.8%. The fund invests in both local and foreign-listed companies that have the majority of their business activities in Iraq. The markets with the largest asset allocation were Iraq (95.3%), Norway (1.5%), and the UK (0.4%).

The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were financials (70.2%) and consumer staples (9.9%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 9.27x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.11x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 4.19%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.22 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Vietnam Fund - Manager Comment

AFC Vietnam Fund Performance

 

The AFC Vietnam Fund returned +6.1% in July with a NAV of USD 3,413.27, bringing the year-to-date return to +18.3% and return since inception to +241.3%. The Ho Chi Minh City VN Index gained 8.7% in July 2023, 21.1% year to date, and 114.2% since inception of the fund, in USD terms. Since inception, the fund strongly outperformed the index by 124.4%. The fund’s annualised return since inception stands at +13.6% p.a. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio resulted in an annualised volatility of 14.84%, a Sharpe ratio of 0.84, and a low correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Index USD of 0.48, all based on monthly observations since inception.

In July, the Vietnamese stock market received robust backing from local retail investors who were enthused by the favourable macroeconomic indicators, leading to an upswing in investment sentiment. As a result, the VN-Index surged by an impressive 9.11%, reaching 1,222.9 points and surpassing the critical 1,200 level. This marked a significant milestone for the market.

Market Developments

The improved GDP growth in the second quarter, rising from 3.3% to 4.1%, was accompanied by other favourable support measures such as rate cuts, credit line expansion, tax incentives, VAT reduction, infrastructure projects, etc. These developments boosted the confidence of local individual investors, leading to the opening of more than 100,000 new stock trading accounts in June alone. Additionally, the State Bank of Vietnam's continuous reduction of key interest rates provided solid momentum to the stock market, with 12-month deposit interest rates at commercial banks dropping from 12% to around 7.5-8.0% p.a. All of these events significantly bolstered the stock market, and liquidity continued to improve, with the average daily trading value rising to USD 722 m in July from USD 712 m in June. Also, from a chart technical perspective, the VN-Index appears attractive, indicating potential further upside in the long term.

 

VN-Index from October 2017 to July 2023

VN-Index from Oct. 2017 to July 2023

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

The Insurance Sector Leads Earning Growth in Q2/2023

During July, many listed companies reported their quarterly results, and according to our calculations, the earnings growth of listed companies in the second quarter reached -2.6% year-on-year. Notably, the earnings growth of the AFC Vietnam Fund exceeded 10.0%, far outperforming the index. The impressive earnings growth was primarily driven by the insurance sector, which contributes around 25% to our portfolio. By the end of July, our insurance positions, PVI, ABI, BIC, and MIG, reported remarkable earnings growth in the second quarter with 61%, 97%, 189%, and 273%, respectively.

 

Earnings Growth of the Insurance Sector in Q2/2023

Earnings Growth of the Insurance Sector in Q2/2023

(Source: companies’ reports, AFC Research)

 

Earnings Growth of Insurance Companies in Q2/2023

Earnings Growth of Insurance Companies in Q2/2023

(Source: companies’ reports, AFC Research)

 

The positive performance of these insurance positions also translated into substantial stock price increases in July, with PVI, ABI, BIC, and MIG rising by 10.6%, 18.5%, 9.8% and 6.9%, respectively. As we have emphasized in previous newsletters, the insurance sector significantly benefits from the high-interest rate environment and the overall recovery of the economy and society post-pandemic. Furthermore, the sector remains resilient during economic challenges, such as the credit crunch during the real estate crisis, as it has substantial cash in the banking system.

Apart from the insurance sector, construction companies operating in the public investment sector are also beneficiaries of the government's deployment of large-scale public projects, particularly in highway construction, airports, and power infrastructure. A prominent position in our portfolio, Lam Dong Minerals and Building Materials Joint-Stock Company (LBM), a concrete producer, exemplifies this trend. LBM's net profit in the first six months of 2023 surged by 46.8% to VND 91 bn, achieving 90% of its annual target. This is a record-high 1H profit in the company's history. Operating in the public investment sector gives LBM a competitive edge, as most other construction companies focus on the struggling real estate industry. With Vietnam's "highway era" in progress, construction companies like LBM are poised to capitalize on the significant opportunities in the next five years.

 

Earnings Growth of Construction Companies in 1H2023

Earnings Growth of Construction Companies in 1H2023

(Source: companies’ reports, AFC Research)
(*) HBC reported high earnings growth due to extraordinary profit.

 

1H Profit of LBM (VND bn)

1H Profit of LBM (VND bn)

(Source: LBM, AFC Research)

 

Exports are Expected to Bottom Out

While exports experienced a decline of -12% growth in the second quarter, we anticipate a gradual recovery in the coming months. Key markets such as the USA, EU, and China faced weak demand due to high inflation in the first half of 2023, leading to reduced consumption. However, as inflation rates in these regions ease, we expect a recovery in consumption that will bolster Vietnamese exports. Additionally, China’s economic reopening supports Vietnamese agricultural products, particularly rice, amidst the ongoing El Nino phenomenon that has damaged rice production in key rice-producing countries.

The occurrence of the severe El Nino phenomenon worldwide has led to detrimental effects on rice production in key rice-producing countries such as India, China, Thailand, and Vietnam.

In addition to these climate-related challenges, the cancellation of the Ukraine-Russia Grain Export Deal and India’s decision to abandon rice exporting policies have further impacted the global rice market. These combined factors have resulted in a substantial surge in rice prices, benefitting Vietnam as the second-largest rice exporter in the world.

The Vietnamese rice export price has experienced a significant increase, jumping from nearly USD 470 per ton in September 2022 to almost USD 600 per ton recently. Furthermore, the first half of 2023 has witnessed a remarkable acceleration in rice export value, reaching USD 2.3 bn, representing an impressive 33% growth compared to the same period in 2022. This achievement is a record high for Vietnamese rice exports.

With these favourable market conditions and growing global demand for rice, Vietnam is well-positioned to capitalize on its status as a major rice exporter, contributing positively to the country’s economic growth and trade prospects.

 

Vietnamese Rice Export Price (USD/ton)

Vietnamese Rice Export Price (USD/ton)

(Source: GSO, AFC Research)

 

The Rice Export Value of Vietnam in 1H2023 Hits a Record High (USD bn)

The Rice Export Value of Vietnam in 1H2023 Hits a Record High (USD bn)

(Source: GSO, AFC Research)

 

With these positive trends, listed rice exporters witnessed significant stock price increases in July. Loc Troi Group (LTG), one of the largest rice exporters in Vietnam and a key position in our portfolio, had a remarkable performance, with its stock price surging by 30.3% from VND 30,300 per share to VND 39,500 per share.

 

Loc Troi Group from May 2022 to July 2023

Loc Troi Group from May 2022 to July 2023

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

Overall, we observed a slight recovery in the global economy, signalling that the worst situation has passed. We firmly believe that Vietnamese exports have already bottomed out and will continue to recover in the forthcoming months. Coupled with the substantial public investment package, the Vietnamese economy is expected to improve further in the second half of the year.

At the end of July 2023, the fund’s largest positions were: Agriculture Bank Insurance JSC (7.8%) and PVI Holdings (7.4%) – both insurance companies, Thien Long Group (7.0%) – a manufacturer of office supplies, Military Insurance Corp (6.7%) – an insurance company, and Lam Dong Minerals and Building Materials JSC (6.3%) – a building material supplier.

The portfolio was invested in 54 names and held 9.1% in cash. The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were consumer (44.1%) and financials (32.7%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 10.33x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 1.38x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 4.90%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 5.09 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Uzbekistan Fund Performance

 

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund (AAFF) USD A-shares returned +4.0% in July 2023 with a NAV of USD 1,364.27. The fund underperformed the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Net Total Return USD Index (+8.5%), the MSCI Frontier Markets Net Total Return USD Index (+7.0%) and outperformed the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index (+3.4%). The performance since inception on 30th March 2012 now stands at +36.4% versus the benchmark, which is down by 18.7% during the same period. The broad diversification of the fund’s portfolio has resulted in lower risk with an annualised volatility of 10.5% and a correlation of the fund versus the MSCI World Net Total Return USD Index of 0.52, all based on monthly observations since inception.

It was another solid all-round monthly performance by the AFC Asia Frontier Fund, with strong gains led by Iraq, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. The performance of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund so far in 2023 does not come as a surprise to us as we have been communicating since the end of last year that as inflation and interest rates peak, investor sentiment will improve, leading to a re-rating in Asian frontier markets due to their heavily discounted valuations. The re-rating in our view has well and truly begun.

As discussed in last month’s manager comment, inflation in Sri Lanka was expected to reach single digits by July 2023, and it came in much better than estimates at 6.3%. This steep drop in inflation will allow the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) to continue with its monetary easing policy, and we expect benchmark interest rates to be cut by another 300-400 basis points by the end of the year. 

Significantly lower interest rates will not only spur an economic recovery but will also support the ongoing rally in the Sri Lankan stock market. On a macro level, the ongoing recovery in tourist arrivals is robust, while the leisure industry is seeing solid bookings for the upcoming peak season in 4Q23/1Q24.

 

Sri Lanka Inflation is now in Single Digits Giving Room to the Central Bank to Continue its Monetary Easing Policy

Sri Lanka Inflation is now in Single Digits Giving Room to the Central Bank to Continue its Monetary Easing Policy

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals in July 2023 at 66% of Pre-Pandemic Levels with a Strong Peak Season Ahead

Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals in July 2023 at 66% of Pre-Pandemic Levels with a Strong Peak Season Ahead

(Source: Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority)

 

The fund’s largest stock position, Kaspi, the Kazakh fintech company, declared another robust set of quarterly results with net profits in 2Q23 growing by 46%. With all of its key business segments doing well, the company upgraded its 2023 net profit growth guidance to above 30% from around 25% announced at the start of the year. With a strong growth outlook and the stock trading at an attractive 2023 P/E ratio of only 10.5x, it is no surprise that Kaspi’s stock price has almost doubled from its lows seen last year.

 

Kaspi (KSPI LI) Stock Price has Almost Doubled in the Last Year and it has More Room to Run Given its Attractive Valuation and Strong Growth Outlook

Kaspi (KSPI LI) Stock Price has Almost Doubled in the Last Year and it has More Room to Run Given its Attractive Valuation and Strong Growth Outlook

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

Sticking to Central Asia, the National Bank of Georgia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points following on from its 50 basis point decrease in May 2023. This easing in monetary policy is not a surprise to us as inflation has declined significantly in Georgia to 0.3% in July and we can expect further monetary easing from the National Bank of Georgia in light of softer inflation numbers.

 

The National Bank of Georgia Cut Benchmark Interest Rates by a Further 25 Basis Points

The National Bank of Georgia Cut Benchmark Interest Rates by a Further 25 Basis Points

(Source: Bloomberg)

 

Quarterly results for the fund’s holdings in Vietnam were stable in a weak economic environment, with many of our companies showing solid net profit growth. For example, the software outsourcing company FPT Corp (FPT VN) grew 2Q23 net profits by 21% in a challenging global economic environment for software outsourcing companies. The two banks we own in Vietnam, Sacombank (STB VN) and Vietcombank (VCB VN), declared 2Q23 net profit growth of 139% and 25% respectively – again, solid performance. More importantly, our key holdings in Vietnam are outperforming the Vietnam VN-Index this year.

 

The Fund’s Key Vietnam Holdings are Outperforming the Benchmark VN-Index

The Fund’s Key Vietnam Holdings are Outperforming the Benchmark VN-Index

(Source: Bloomberg, % change in prices between 30th December 2022 – 1st August 2023)

 

The best-performing indexes in the AAFF universe in July were Sri Lanka (+20.6%) and Pakistan (+16.3%). The poorest-performing markets were Jordan (−0.8%) and Mongolia (−0.7%). The top-performing portfolio stocks this month were a Sri Lankan bank (+39.7%), another Sri Lankan bank (+36.4%), a Sri Lankan listed resort operator in the Maldives (+27.3%), a Pakistani mobile phone distribution company (+26.7%) and the operator of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (+23.2%).

In July, the fund added to existing positions in Mongolia and Sri Lanka and also reduced existing positions in Mongolia.

At the end of July 2023, the portfolio was invested in 74 companies, 2 funds and held 3.3% in cash. The two biggest stock positions were a fintech company in Kazakhstan (4.8%) and a bank in Kazakhstan (4.2%). The countries with the largest asset allocation were Iraq (18.7%), Mongolia (14.0%), and Vietnam (13.0%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were consumer goods (19.7%) and financials (15.1%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 6.91x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 0.99x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.61%. The fund’s portfolio carbon footprint is 0.98 tons per USD 1 mn invested.

 
 
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AFC Uzbekistan Fund - Manager Comment

 

AFC Uzbekistan Fund Performance

 

 

The AFC Uzbekistan Fund Class F shares returned −0.8% in July 2023 with a NAV of USD 1,831.54, bringing the return since inception (29th March 2019) to +83.2%, while the return for the year stands at +5.5%. On an annualised basis, the fund has returned +15.0% p.a. with a Sharpe ratio of 0.96.

July saw most of the fund’s portfolio companies complete their filing of annual 2022 results, as well as results for the second quarter of 2023. In short, earnings continue to impress! While we are seeing multiple compression as share prices remain relatively flat, this gives us the opportunity to continue deploying capital into Uzbekistan’s blue-chip companies at attractive prices, in anticipation of the next phase of the re-rating.

AFC Uzbekistan Fund Valuations as of 31st July 2023:

Estimated weighted harmonic average trailing P/E (only companies with profit): 5.07x

Estimated weighted harmonic average P/B:

0.98x
Estimated weighted portfolio dividend yield: 3.55%

 

Constitutional Reform is Net Positive

Over the past year there has been significant news and progress made on updating Uzbekistan’s constitution. Roughly two thirds of it has been amended, leading it to be referred to as a “social constitution” with significant reforms announced for education and term limits on a variety of government positions including for the speaker of parliament, supreme court justices, and governors of Uzbekistan’s regions. In March 2020, legislation was passed allowing for the privatisation of non-agricultural land, but private ownership of land was still illegal according to the constitution. 

Included in these recent amendments were changes allowing for private land ownership, which we view as among the more significant changes made, for any country with a large middle class has strong private property rights. This is something we have been monitoring since we came to Uzbekistan in 2018 and we are pleased to see it having materialized, both for the health of the middle class and enterprises since almost all of our portfolio companies have sizable real estate holdings which are grossly undervalued on their books due to a lack of annual appraisals to avoid paying higher property taxes. While we attribute no upside value to the real estate holdings of our portfolio companies when determining how best to allocate capital, we do understand that stated book values are all conservative since their real estate is not accounted for at fair value. In several instances, we see some of our portfolio companies either selling assets or redeveloping them in the future which will provide a nice bump to their business and NAVs.

In the international community, the most covered news related to the constitutional reform was the extension of the presidential term limit from five to seven years. As a result of the new term limit, President Mirziyoyev announced snap elections in order to be compliant. On 9th July 2023 elections were held and he handsomely won 87.1% of the vote. As stated last month, this election was a non-event for it was a mere formality and there was no real challenge to President Mirziyoyev’s re-election.

Earnings Season Continues to Impress

With the annual general meeting season having concluded, we now have clarity into how our portfolio companies have done through the second quarter of 2023.

To highlight a few companies, a financial services company the fund holds saw trailing twelve months earnings growth of 62%, book value growth of 44%, and at month end trades at a P/E of 4.29x and P/B of 1.20x. A cement company similarly grew profits 265% YoY and book value 18%, while trading at a P/E of 3.38x and P/B of 0.51x. Furthermore, a chemicals producer grew profits 105% and book value 5%, trading at a P/E of 5.03x and P/B of 3.57x. 

While we are seeing valuation multiples remain stable, or even compress, as we wait for the next phase of the re-rating of Uzbekistan’s capital markets, we remain comforted by the fact that the fund has sizable holdings in the blue-chip companies we believe will benefit most from future strong economic growth. Buttressed by significant infrastructure buildout, attracting foreign direct investment for manufacturing and a domestic consumption boom as the consumer and corporates leverage up from a very low base, Uzbekistan should see continued strong growth in the years ahead. This is further confirmed by a GDP growth forecast for 2023 of 6.5% according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Inflation has fallen into the single digits, reaching 8.94% in July, giving us confidence that Uzbekistan remains one of the bright spots in the global economy that should continue to grow regardless of the slowdown in the global economy. 

At the end of July 2023, the fund was invested in 25 names and held 9.9% cash. The portfolio was allocated to Uzbekistan (90.11%) and Kyrgyzstan (0.04%). The sectors with the largest allocation of assets were materials (40.0%) and financials (35.3%). The fund's estimated weighted harmonic average trailing 12 months P/E ratio (only companies with profit) was 5.07x, the estimated weighted harmonic average P/B ratio was 0.98x, and the estimated weighted average portfolio dividend yield was 3.55%.

 
 
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Disclaimer:

This Newsletter is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. No such offer or solicitation will be made prior to the delivery of the Offering Documents. Before making an investment decision, potential investors should review the Offering Documents and inform themselves as to the legal requirements and tax consequences within the countries of their citizenship, residence, domicile and place of business with respect to the acquisition, holding or disposal of shares, and any foreign exchange restrictions that may be relevant thereto. This newsletter is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law and regulation, and is intended solely for the use of the person to whom it is intended. The information and opinions contained in this Newsletter have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources deemed reliable. Opinions expressed are current as of the date appearing in this Newsletter only. Neither Asia Frontier Capital Ltd (AFCL), nor any of its subsidiaries or affiliates will make any representation or warranty to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements”, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of Funds managed by AFCL or its subsidiaries and affiliates may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

For Switzerland only: This is an advertising document. The state of the origin of the fund is the Cayman Islands. This document may only be provided to qualified investors within the meaning of art. 10 para. 3 and 3ter CISA. In Switzerland, the representative is Acolin Fund Services AG, Leutschenbachstrasse 50, 8050 Zurich, Switzerland, whilst the paying agent is NPB Neue Privat Bank AG, Limmatquai 1 / am Bellevue, 8024 Zurich, Switzerland. The basic documents of the fund report may be obtained free of charge from the representative. Past performance is no indication of current or future performance. The performance data do not take account of the commissions, if any, and fund transfer costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units.

AFC Asia Frontier Fund is registered for sale to qualified/professional investors in Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. AFC Iraq Fund and AFC Uzbekistan Fund in Singapore, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. AFC Vietnam Fund in Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. 

By accessing information contained herein, users are deemed to be representing and warranting that they are either a Hong Kong Professional Investor or are observing the applicable laws and regulations of their relevant jurisdictions.

© Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. All rights reserved.

 
 
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