Dear Investors and Friends,
The AFC Iraq Fund was down 1.3% in May, while its benchmark, the Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), was down 4.9%. For the year, the AFC Iraq Fund is up 8.0%, while the RSISX USD Index is up 3.1%.
There is more to the index’s 4.9% decline than meets the eye due to the nature of the index’s market value-weighted calculation that incorporates stock dividends, but not cash dividends, that negatively affected the index’s monthly performance, much as it did the prior May. The culprits were two huge cash dividend announcements during the month of 12.1% and 8.7% by two of its ten components, the Bank of Baghdad (BBOB) and Asiacell Communications (TASC), respectively, with a 17.7% and 19.1% index weighting at the end of April. If these two cash dividends were incorporated in the index’s calculations, then it would have been down 1.1% for the month and not down 4.9%.
These, as discussed last month, come on the heels of two similarly oversized dividends. The first, in March, was Mansour Bank (BMNS)’s combination of a cash dividend amounting to a 4.7% dividend yield and a 31.5% share dividend, for an effective dividend yield of 19.5%. The second, in April, by the National Bank of Iraq (BNOI)’s combination of a cash dividend amounting to a 4.9% dividend yield and a 25.0% share dividend, for an effective dividend yield of 9.5%. These four dividends promise a repeat of last year’s humongous dividends by the top companies in the market, particularly Baghdad Soft Drinks (IBSD), which last year paid out a cash dividend equivalent to a 7.5% dividend yield.
The market’s month-on-month increase in trading volumes – as measured by the average daily traded value – built upon that of the prior three months, with increases of 26.5% in February, 22.1% in March, 27.2% in April, and 25.0% in May (trading volumes adjusted for block-trades). From a technical analysis perspective, the market’s action continues to be that of consolidating its three-year gains, and that a continued consolidation or a pull-back should be within its multi-month uptrend (chart below).
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